NHL Best Bets: Take Advantage of Market Overvaluing Stars

The Stars have lost four games in a row and are averaging a measly 1.67 goals in their last half-dozen games. Should you fade Dallas again against the Jets?

James Carey Lauder-USA TODAY Sports

Happy Thursday! There are nine games around the NHL tonight, including more than a few exciting matchups for both casual fans and bettors. The Coyotes take their elite goaltending to Philadelphia to take on the smoking-hot Flyers. Two Original Six teams meet in Boston as the Blackhawks take on the Bruins, plus the Sharks and Hurricanes meet in an intriguing out-of-conference matchup.

There’s plenty to wager on, but let’s take a closer look at two games in particular. Here are my two best bets for Thursday:

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Boston Bruins: Under 6 goals (-105)

This game is a goalie enthusiast’s dream. Tuukka Rask has been one of the best netminders in the NHL so far this season with a 13-2-2 record, a 2.04 goals-against average, a .933 save percentage and two shutouts. All of those stats lead the Eastern Conference and rank in the top three in the NHL. Robin Lehner is having a mighty fine season in the other crease as well. He’s tied for the sixth-best save percentage in the NHL (.929), but the rest of his numbers don’t look quite as special because of the massive volume of quality chances Chicago gives up.

The Bruins are allowing a league-low 2.18 goals per game against this season and the Blackhawks’ offense has dried up in recent weeks. Chicago got shut out at home by the Blues in its most recent game. Since Nov. 19, the Blackhawks have failed to score more than three goals in any game and are averaging 1.86 goals per game.

Boston, on the other hand, may be third in the NHL in goals for, but the Bruins have been getting the job done with less offense over the last week. The Bruins come in on an eight-game winning streak and a 12-game point streak, but are averaging just 2.5 goals per games in their last four. Patrice Bergeron’s injury has certainly contributed to that and he will not play against Chicago tonight.

The star power in this game may lead some to stay away or bet the over, but offense is not en vogue for either of these teams right now.

Winnipeg Jets vs. Dallas Stars: Jets (+140)

Sportsbooks still haven’t adjusted to the Stars coming back down to earth lately and this line shows it. The Jets are getting way too much value here to not want to take their moneyline. These two teams met two days ago in Winnipeg and the Jets wiped the floor with the Stars in a 5-1 victory. This game is in Dallas and a blowout like that is unlikely, but the Jets should be closer to +110.

The Stars have lost four games in a row and are averaging a measly 1.67 goals per game in their last half-dozen games. They’re running into a hot goalie in Connor Hellebuyck that would be a Vezina finalist if the season ended today. After stopping 27 of Dallas’s 28 shots on Tuesday night, Hellebuyck improved to 14-7-1 on the season with a 2.17 goals-against average (fourth in NHL) and a .934 save percentage (tied for second in NHL).

Winnipeg has won four of its last five and seven of its last nine games. The Jets have been a slightly below-average scoring team thus far, but are finding the back of the net more lately. The Jets averaged 3.44 goals during that aforementioned nine-game stretch. Winnipeg absolutely should not be this heavy of an underdog. Take advantage.

Season Record: 9-8-1 (+0.49 units)