There are only five games on the NBA slate tonight, including two marquee matchups. The 76ers will attempt to win a road game in Milwaukee, and then the night closes with the Rockets in Los Angeles to play the Lakers. Other than that, it is a pretty disappointing slate, but I do have a couple of positions that I like a lot.
Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks: Bucks -8.5
The Bucks are the best team in the NBA, as they have won 43 of the 50 games they have played so far this season. The Bucks have won nine of their last 10 games, and have just one home loss this calendar year. Milwaukee is also very good when asked to cover single-digit spreads as it is tonight, as the Bucks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when asked to lay less than 10 points. I really don't like betting big public favorites in nationally televised games, but tonight we have to get in line with the public.
The 76ers are a terrible road team. Philadelphia is playing its fourth straight road game, and have lost the previous three while looking pretty bad doing so. The last time Philadelphia went on a four-game road trip, it also lost all four games. The 76ers’ last three road wins has come against the Nets, Knicks, and Pistons. The last time these two teams played, Philly blew the Bucks out in Philadelphia. I'm sure the Bucks will look to return the favor tonight.
San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers: Spurs +3.5
The Trail Blazers and the Spurs meet tonight in what should be a very competitive game. These two teams along with the Grizzlies will be battling for the eighth seed in the Western Conference over the next few months. Portland comes into this game winners of four of its last five. The Blazers look like they are starting to turn their season around after a poor start.
The Spurs enter tonight's contest losers of their past two games, but they have also played better over the past few weeks. San Antonio only has eight road victories this season but they have 12 ATS road covers. As a matter of fact, San Antonio is 6-3-1 ATS in its last 10 games. San Antonio is playing well enough to cover the number even if it doesn’t win. I think this will be a one-possession game—these two teams have split their two previous contests, as the Spurs recorded a three-point victory while the Blazers notched a five-point win.
The Trail Blazers are a heavy public favorite in this game, more than 80% of the tickets are backing Portland. I will gladly fade the public and go with San Antonio to cover the number.