NBA Bubble Best Bets and DFS Plays: Tuesday, August 4, 2020

SI's Fantasy and Gambling analyst Corey Parson runs through his best NBA bets and top daily fantasy plays for Tuesday, August 4th in the Orlando bubble.
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Yesterday was not the best day for me betting in the bubble. 

The Memphis Grizzlies continue to look incredibly shaky and the Lakers theory of LeBron not covering the spread worked in reverse against the Jazz. 

As we get back on the horse, I feel very good about the slate. Tonight should be a fun night as well for DFS as some of the top fantasy producers in the sport are on the slate. 

Let's get after it with our best bets and top DFS plays for today.

Schedule of Games

1:30pm ET - Brooklyn Nets vs Milwaukee Bucks

2:30pm ET - Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings

4:00pm ET - Phoenix Suns vs LA Clippers

6:00pm ET - Orlando Magic vs Indiana Pacers

6:30pm ET - Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat

9:00pm ET - Houston Rockets vs Portland Trail Blazers

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat

The Play: Heat +3.5

Despite a tough loss to the Raptors yesterday, the Miami Heat are playing good basketball. Tonight, they have another tough challenge in the Boston Celtics. 

The Celtics, like Miami, are 1-1 in the bubble with a loss to the Bucks and a handling of the Trail Blazers. Boston opened up tonight's game as a 3 point favorite (-3) and as of now it has been bet up to -3.5. 

Kemba Walker is dealing with a knee issue, so his minutes have been limited to start the seeding round. The Celtics plan on ramping up his minutes, but I would not expect a full load tonight. Meanwhile, the Miami Heat are only 2.5 games behind the Celtics for the 3rd spot in the Eastern Conference, so Eric Spoelstra's crew has something to play for tonight. The Celtics are one of the most popular teams in the NBA so they are always very heavily bet on, especially when playing in a nationally televised game. Right now, the Celtics are getting over 70 percent of the spread bets at FanDuel Sportsbook. Instead, I'll be fading the public and backing the fully healthy Miami Heat.

Houston Rockets vs Portland Trail Blazers

The Play: Blazers +4.5

The Trail Blazers and Rockets meet tonight in what should be a great game. 

Both these teams have something to play for which makes the game even more compelling. The Rockets aren't far behind the Denver Nuggets for the third seed in the Western Conference, while the Trail Blazers are only two games behind the Grizzlies for the 8-seed. 

The Rockets have a pair of impressive wins in the seeding round, including a recent win over the Milwaukee Bucks. They are a team people are speaking highly of, and consequently, over 60 percent of the people betting on this game favor the Rockets. 

The Trail Blazers are not the same team that we saw when the regular came to a pause. Carmelo Anthony, AKA "Skinny Melo" is hitting clutch shots, and a healthy Jusuf Nurkic is putting up awesome numbers. The Trail Blazers are a real threat to take the 8-seed away from the Memphis Grizzlies. 

Houston looks legit, and like they may have a shot to break up the Lakers vs Clippers expected Western Conference finals matchup. They could very well win their third game in the bubble tonight, but I think the Blazers make the game close and ultimately cover the +4.5 spread.

People's Parlay

Phoenix Suns +9 / Orlando Magic +2 ( +258 )

DFS Plays

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PG/SF Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks

DraftKings: $10,900

FanDuel: $11,000

Luka Doncic is playing great basketball to start his time in the bubble, but why wouldn't he? Luke has put up over 60 fantasy points in the Mavericks two games since the restart, and this matchup vs the Kings is a potential triple-double spot.

PG/SG Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns

DraftKings: $8,400

FanDuel: $7,600

Booker has a tough matchup, but he has been playing very well since the restart. He controls the basketball for the Suns so the majority of the offense runs through him. Booker will have a 40-point scoring night before the Suns leave the bubble.

SF/PF T.J. Warren, Indiana Pacers

DraftKings: $8,000

FanDuel: $6,400

I'm going to keep playing Warren while he is on this heater. Without Domantas Sabonis, the Pacers are running their offense through Warren and he is not letting them or his fantasy owners down.

PG De'Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings

DraftKings: $7,300

FanDuel: $7,500

Fox got off to a hot start in the seeding round, putting up 54 fantasy points in the Kings opener vs the Spurs. He didn't play well in the Kings second game, but he is in a good spot to bounce back tonight vs Dallas. Opposing guards have been putting up big numbers vs the Mavericks throughout the season.