The Fantasy Executive's Daily NBA Rundown - Odds, Bets, and Plays for Tuesday, February 16th

SI Gambling’s Corey Parson breaks down his NBA wagers and shares his best bets, target lines, props, and more.
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I had to take a break from looking at NBA sides and totals to clear my head. I feel better now, and I'm ready to hit the ground running with my NBA picks this week. Tonight will be a fun night to bet and watch basketball. The night's nationally televised games should be a lot of fun. The battle of the top two picks of the 2019 draft class takes place tonight in Memphis when the Grizzlies host the Pelicans. In the late game, the Brooklyn Nets are without Kevin Durant and in Phoenix to mix it up with the red-hot Suns.


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NBA Betting Plays - Tuesday, February 16th

ODDS AVAILABLE AT DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Denver Nuggets vs. Boston Celtics (-1.5) Total: 221.5

The Denver Nuggets cruise into Boston tonight and are sporting a three-game winning streak. Denver has gotten hot after a slow start to the season. The Celtics are losers of four of their last five. They have not looked good offensively without Marcus Smart in the lineup. It's funny to think that a team with Kemba Walker, Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown would miss Marcus Smart as much as the Celtics have. I hate to use the term "trap game," but if you know anything about the NBA and sports betting, this smells like a trap game. Let me tell you why: This game opened up with the Celtics as a 3.5-point favorite. When I saw that this morning my first thought was to fade the Nuggets because there is no reason Boston should be the favorite, making the Nuggets--you guessed it--a trendy underdog. According to covers.com, 55% of the spread tickets are backing the Nuggets. Denver is 6-6 ATS on the road this season, while the Celtics are 7-3 ATS at home, Denver has not performed well as a road underdog. In the four games that they were road dogs, they are 1-3 ATS. The Celtics are 5-2 ATS as a favorite on their home court.

The Pick: Celtics -2.5

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Memphis Grizzlies (PK) Total: 231.5

I wouldn't say I like to wager on games that close as a pick 'em. What I will say is the Grizzlies struggle with the Pelicans. Memphis is 0-4 straight up and against the spread vs. New Orleans over the past two seasons. This game opened up with a 229 total and has since pushed up to 231. 5, and I can see it getting higher. Both the Pelicans and the Grizzlies are 4-0 to the over in their last four respective games. A nationally televised game with the Pelicans means the public will hammer the over (that is what is happening), and the line is moving up as well. This is the perfect time to bet the under. Remember those four games between these two teams over the past two seasons I mentioned earlier? Well, the under is 2-1-1 in those games. These two teams met on February 6th, the total pushed at 227. I think these division rivals will play a very competitive defensive-minded game.

The Pick: Under 231.5

Odds and Ends

  • The Portland Trail Blazers are on a four-game winning streak. Tonight, they are a 5 point road favorite vs. Oklahoma City. The Thunder are 4-7-1 ATS at home this season. The Blazers are 9-4 ATS on the road.
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • The Raptors are 11-4 to the over in road games.
  • The Phoenix Suns are 7-4 to the under as a home favorite.

Overall Record: 30-33 ATS

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