2024 American Express: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for PGA West

This week's unique format in the desert demands a go-for-broke birdiefest that our expert thinks may pay off big.

Author:
Keith Stewart, PGA
Publish date:
Jan 16, 2024

If you thought the madness at Waialae over the weekend was wild, wait until you watch the American Express. The PGA Tour has reached the mainland after two incredibly entertaining weeks in Hawaii. The first two FedEx Cup tournaments have both been very close contests. Sunday, a 40-foot putt bested a 4-foot attempt in sudden death. We have had two winners with pre-tournament odds over +20000 (200-1) this season, and now we head to the Palm Desert where longshots have a habit of finishing first.

The average winner’s pre-tournament odds over the past five years at PGA West are +21500 (215-1)! The average over the past decade is still well over 100-1 at +13300 (133-1). For every Jon Rahm or Si Woo Kim, we have also seen an Andrew Landry or Adam Long win. Six of the last 10 winners of The American Express started the week with odds over +6600 (66-1).

It gets wilder. The average winning score in those 10 years is 24 under par. Can we point to a reason why this event tends to celebrate those with incredible odds? It starts with the format. The field of 156 players will be spread out over three different golf courses for the first three rounds. La Quinta Country Club (par 72/7,060 yards), the PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course (par 72/7,147) and PGA West’s Stadium Course (par 72/7,187) are three of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour.

J.T. Poston hits his drive during the final round of the 2023 American Express on the Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West in La Quinta, Calif. — The pros will play three rounds over three courses before a cut, leading to a Sunday shootout.
Andy Abeyta/USA TODAY Network

These guys shoot 30 under par at Kapalua on a 7,500-plus-yard course; imagine what they can do on three courses where 42 of the 54 holes have a birdie rate over 15%. Nineteen of the 54 holes have a birdie rate over 25%! Considering it hasn’t rained in Palm Springs for 25 days, each course will be in excellent condition. Based upon the GCSAA reports, the weather has been spectacular in November and December leading to increased growth of the rough.

That may keep the winning score below 25 under, but the reality is the American Express is a bona fide birdiefest. Each week my preview breaks down the biggest differentiating skill(s) needed to win. A week ago, the game plan was to keep the ball in the fairway, lead the field in par-4 scoring, and convert with the putter. In the end, that’s exactly what led +40000 (400-1) pre-tournament super longshot Greyson Murray to victory.

When you come to three courses that have 16 par-4s under 425 yards in length (53%) and nine par-5s (of 12) under 550 yards in length, the courses just aren’t hard enough to separate Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele from Nick Taylor and Taylor Pendrith. Strokes-gained statistics measure how much better your specific ballstriking ability is better than the field. The largest average gain by the last 10 winners in any single category was less than three strokes, and that was on approach. If the test just isn’t that hard, then you have a situation where no player gets left behind. By rotating through three courses, setting pro-am-favorable pins and giving the field an extra day to make the cut, you also bring the competitors closer together. Week after week, our betting previews focus on the course and specific skills. This week, and a few others, I like to look at those who play best under these conditions.

The American Express is a pro-am where each PGA Tour professional is paired with amateurs, which leads to very long rounds and plenty of bad golf to watch. Over the years, certain players perform better in this setting than others. I’ve looked through the results of The American Express and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and am filtering those players first. Ballstriking success stems from incredible wedge play and par-5 scoring. These are resort courses and therefore the fairways are far from U.S. Open standards.

Most of all, I’m looking for players who can make strings of birdies. We know who those players are based upon their fantasy point scoring success and birdie-or-better percentage. These guys have the ability to convert 10 birdies in a round and our analytics will break down who has been converting the most birdie chances in their last 24 or 36 rounds. Watching the Sony Open on Sunday also showed us one other powerful perspective. The only way one of the lower-tier players can make it into the $20 million signature events is by going all-in.

Players were very aggressive on Sunday attacking the course and there were a bunch of new names at the top of the leaderboard. I expect this to continue in the regular Tour events. It is going to be incredibly exciting for the fans and extremely profitable for the bettors who can successfully bet pre and during the tournament. Take a look at my win, place and show and you’ll see a very thoughtful approach to this wild week. I traveled to over many Tour events over the past two seasons studying the field. With that knowledge, I know who can compete in a desert shootout and they are listed below.

Win: Nick Taylor

Nick Taylor finished seventh last week at the Sony Open. The 2023 RBC Canadian Open winner captured the attention of an entire country. He has mine at the AMEX with his steady play and ninth place strokes-gained-total showing at Waialae. He loves desert golf, finishing runner-up to Scottie Scheffler a year ago at the WM Phoenix Open. That Sunday he took on Jon Rahm and Scheffler down the stretch and stood tall. A very solid ballstriker who is playing well, Taylor can fill the cup with his putter. Take Nick Taylor to win The American Express (+9000 SI Sportsbook).

Last week's result: Lost. J.T. Poston mounted a Sunday rally at Waialae to finish T6.
Year-to-date: 0-2, -2.00 units

Place: Scottie Scheffler

This well is far from dry. Scottie Scheffler is an automatic top-5 placement bet every time he tees it up. The best ballstriker on the planet, Scheffler has been improving with the putter. That slow steady climb only increases his chances of cashing. A two-time winner in the desert winning back-to-back WMPOs, grab this bet while the odds still make it slightly attractive. Take Scottie Scheffler to finish top 5 (+140 SI Sportsbook).

Last week's result: Lost. Top-10 pick Chris Kirk faded Sunday at the Sony Open to T18.
Year-to-date: 1-1, +0.05 units

Showdown: Akshay Bhatia over Rickie Fowler

At the start of 2023, Rickie Fowler was climbing the rankings and setting himself up for a comeback win. I’m not sure what happened after he captured the Rocket Mortgage, but it has not been good. The ballstriking has been inconsistent at best and the putter just ice cold. His last top-10 finish was in Detroit! By comparison, Akshay Bhatia has won and accumulated six top 20s since early July. In Hawaii, he finished T14 and T13. Bhatia’s ballstriking is far superior at the moment. Take Akshay Bhatia over Rickie Fowler head-to-head (-120 FanDuel).

Last week's result: Won! Eric Cole (T13) defeated Sahith Theegala (MC).
Year-to-date: 2-0, +2.00 units

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.