2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for Pebble Beach Golf Links

The newly minted signature event brings the PGA Tour's best to Pebble Beach, where our expert is targeting wedge wizards.

Author:
Keith Stewart, PGA
Publish date:
Jan 30, 2024

PEBBLE BEACH, Calif. — Breaking news: the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is no longer an awkward golf marathon covering the exploits of Bill Murray and Macklemore. Instead, the PGA Tour has given it “signature” status, a new format and 18 of the top 20 players in the world. What was once painful to watch will now be the first real betting event of the PGA Tour calendar.

Let’s get right into the preview because there’s plenty to cover. First is the format change. Amateurs will still be involved, but only for the first two days. The former AT&T utilized a three-course rotation. A field of 80 players will compete on Spyglass Hill Golf Course and Pebble Beach Golf Links for Rounds 1 and 2. Both weekend rounds will take place at Pebble Beach.

Robby Shelton hits his tee shot on the 18th hole during the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am golf tournament at Pebble Beach Golf Links. — The conditions at Pebble Beach (2023 pictured) may not look like this every day this week.
Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports

We don’t have a 36-hole cut. Purists, please keep it to yourselves; this is a betting breakdown. Take it to X (formerly Twitter). The purse is $20 million and the first-place prize of $3.6 million will surely grab everyone’s attention. Our average winning score over the past 10 editions is 18 under par. Even with the change in format, I’m still targeting a similar winning total if the weather holds up.

My PGA Professional eyes are on property and thank goodness I looked at the weather forecast. It’s cold on the Monterey Peninsula. I know it is February, but it is even cold for this time of year. To compound the chill, it is also very damp. This region has experienced a very cold wet winter. The GCSAA report mentions soft conditions, and I can tell you from walking the courses that they are quite wet.

Thankfully, both are among the shortest on Tour. Not only are they short, but Pebble Beach GL has the lowest average driving distance on the PGA Tour. Players must play to a position off the tee as hitting the fairway is priority No. 1 on every driving hole. Pebble Beach also has the smallest greens on Tour. Here’s where experience comes into play when building a gameplan.

Every winner since 2006 has finished 21st or better prior to winning the AT&T. Both courses have a ton of elevation changes and are affected by the elements. Each of them sits alongside the Pacific Ocean. History will help your confidence when you are competing alongside and across cliffs. There are many weeks where wedge play is a requirement to contend, but not a separating skill. During AT&T week it will differentiate you. The best wedge players win in Monterey and our best bets can wedge it close and create birdie chances.

Our guys also hit a ton of greens in regulation and you have to when the scorecards are this short. I know the greens are small, but completely relying on short game to contend won’t keep you close. I am favoring bogey avoidance, but that’s to keep momentum, not make sub-par scores. With 14 par-4s under 430 yards most will point toward par-4 scoring, but I’m favoring the other pars. The par-3s are tricky and each course has four par-5s.

The 5s as a collection are easy and will need to help you get to that high teen number. Six of the last 10 winners held pre-tournament odds of +3500 or less. With the amplified field, I see our winner coming from the higher chalk and middle tier. I know we have seen four straight longshots win, but Chris Kirk is a proven winner and the rest of the events have not had this depth of talent at the top.

Winning doesn’t seem to come easy at Pebble Beach, but the eventual trophyholders win by a wide margin. I realize Tiger Woods won a U.S. Open here by 15 shots in 2000, but over the past decade the winner of the AT&T has an average winning margin of approximately three strokes. Be sure to remember that fact when you are watching the live betting, and don't bet on a playoff.

Wager the head-to-heads and placements this weekend in your live card instead of chasing that outright as it seems they don’t catch up. This week will be the official start to the PGA Tour season. Eighty of the world’s best on an iconic layout, followed quickly by the WM Phoenix Open and the signature Genesis Invitational. For my win, place and show I scoured the practice areas and measured the most comfortable. Not just in game, but experience. I picked the best all-around wedge players, Poa putters and bad weather warriors.

It's nasty out here right now and unless the forecast shifts dramatically it will continue to test these players. To borrow a term from horse handicapping, we want mudders: players who can score ugly and get the job done.

Win: Jordan Spieth

Jordan Spieth’s partnership with AT&T has paid great dividends at Pebble Beach. In 11 starts at the Pro-Am, Spieth has made every cut with six top 10s and a win. One of the world’s best wedge players, Jordan attacks at Pebble Beach like few can. Smaller greens also invite scoring opportunities from around the green which is another separating skill in his repertoire. Spieth’s last start at the Sentry was a third; don’t be surprised if he moves up a couple spots to the podium at Pebble. Take Jordan Spieth to win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (+1800 SI Sportsbook).

Last week's result: Lost. Sahith Theegala was T64 at Torrey Pines.
Year-to-date: 0–4, -4.00 units

Place: Eric Cole

In his last nine starts, Eric Cole has seven top-21 finishes. Incredibly consistent, missing the cut at Torrey Pines can be forgiven because Cole’s driver can be troubling. He can keep that club in the bag at Pebble Beach and do more than contend. Cole is top 20 in this elite field over his last 36 rounds for putting, short game and wedge play, and second (!) for birdie-or-better percentage. Take Eric Cole to finish top 20 (+163 SI Sportsbook).

Last week's result: Lost. Sungjae Im missed the cut.
Year-to-date: 1–3, -1.95 units

Showdown: Nicolai Hojgaard over Beau Hossler

Bombers are seldom known as great wedge players, but Nicolai Hojgaard has serious game with his scoring irons. An efficient putter as well, Hojgaard’s power just becomes gravy this week on a course that rewards accuracy over ball speed. Beau Hossler has all of the skills needed to contend again at the AT&T and I believe this matchup will come down to Sunday, but in the end Hossler’s weaker wedge game and inconsistent play off the tee will keep him from beating the tremendous twin. Take Nicolai Hojgaard over Beau Hossler head-to-head (-110 DraftKings).

Last week's result: Void! Adrian Meronk withdrew and left for LIV Golf.
Year-to-date: 3–0, +3.00 units

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.