2025 Players Championship Betting Models, Picks: Predicting Volatile TPC Sawgrass

TPC Sawgrass features danger at every turn and only players who have complete control will contend.

Players Championship drama peaks on the famed island-green 17th hole. / Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK

The PGA Tour arrives at TPC Sawgrass for one of the season’s crown jewels: The Players Championship. Widely regarded as the unofficial fifth major, a victory here carries immense weight in shaping a golfer’s legacy. 

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 layout stretching 7,352 yards with Bermudagrass greens. The course demands precision and patience from those tackling Pete Dye’s masterful design. Trouble looms around every corner, and wayward shots can lead to big numbers. The par-5 16th tempts players with a classic risk-reward dilemma, while the iconic par-3 17th with its famous island green ensures drama down the stretch. At TPC Sawgrass, the only certainty is a thrilling finish.

The Players Championship field is arguably the strongest field of the year on the PGA Tour. This is a full-field event with all of the best players teeing it up. 

The Players Championship is an exceptionally volatile event that had never seen a back-to-back winner until Scottie Scheffler accomplished that feat last season. 

Past winners at TPC Sawgrass

• 2024: Scottie Scheffler (-20)
• 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
• 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
• 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
• 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
• 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
• 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
• 2016: Jason Day (-15)
• 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)

Key stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

Strokes-gained approach

Strokes-gained approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at the Players Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Strokes-gained approach per round over past 24 rounds:

1. Nick Taylor (+1.17)
2. Jackson Suber (+1.13)
3. Henrik Norlander (+1.09) 
4. Sepp Straka (+1.06) 
5. Nicolai Hojgaard (+1.06)

Good drive percentage

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switched to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with good drives will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Good drive percentage over past 24 rounds:

1. Brice Garnett (88.8%) 
2. Ben Kohles (88.0%) 
3. Aaron Rai (87.7%) 
4. Doug Ghim (87.5%) 
5. Collin Morikawa (87.5%) 

Strokes-gained total at Pete Dye designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes. Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

Strokes-gained per round at Pete Dye over past 36 rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+3.48)
2. Kevin Yu (+3.18) 
3. Xander Schauffele (+3.05)
4. Ryo Hitsatsune (+2.67)
5. Justin Thomas (+2.62) 

Strokes-gained ball striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas and Scottie Scheffler, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at the Players. 

Strokes-gained ball striking over past 24 rounds:

1. Collin Morikawa (+1.33)
2. Taylor Pendrith (+1.32)
3. Joel Dahmen (+1.28)
4. Sepp Straka (+1.27)
5. Tommy Fleetwood (+1.17)

Recent form

Since the switch to March, players who have fared well at TPC Sawgrass have had great lead-in form.

Strokes-gained total over past 12 rounds:

1. Michael Kim (+2.11)
2. Rory McIlroy (+1.84)
3. Scottie Scheffler (+1.64)
4. Russell Henley (+1.63)
5. Alex Smalley (+1.60)

Par-5 scoring average

Par-5 efficiency is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par-5 scoring average over past 24 rounds:

1. Patrick Cantlay (4.39)
2. Taylor Pendrith (4.40)
3. Taylor Moore (4.40)
4. C.T. Pan (4.42)
5. Ryan Fox (4.42)

Comparable course rankings

This season, I am going to generate a rankings list of the best players cumulatively at the comparable courses. For TPC Sawgrass, I am using PGA National, Innisbrook, Pete Dye Stadium, Sedgefield, TPC River Highlands, Harbour Town, Bay Hill, Concession, Waialae and TPC Southwind. 

Comparable course player rankings:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Xander Schauffele
3. Justin Thomas
4. Patrick Cantlay
5. Ryo Hisatsune
6. Russell Henley
7. Keith Mitchell
8. Daniel Berger
9. Viktor Hovland
10. Hideki Matsuyama

Players Championship model rankings

Below, I have compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed: strokes-gained approach (23%), good drive percentage (20%), Strokes-gained Pete Dye (10%), strokes-gained ball striking (15%), par-5 scoring (10%), comparable course rankings (10%) and recent form (12%). 

1. Collin Morikawa
2. Justin Thomas
3. Michael Kim
4. Scottie Scheffler
5. Sepp Straka
6. Tommy Fleetwood
7. Aaron Rai
8. Russell Henley
9. Nick Taylor
10. Kevin Yu
11. Patrick Cantlay
12. Doug Ghim
13. Daniel Berger
14. Alex Smalley
15. Kevin Roy

Last week's picks results for the Arnold Palmer Invitational:

Justin Thomas (25-1): T36
Patrick Cantlay (30-1): T31
Tommy Fleetwood (30-1): T11
Shane Lowry (55-1): 7th
Min Woo Lee (90-1): MC

2025 Players Championship picks

Ludvig Åberg +2000 (DraftKings)

Ludvig Åberg has established himself as one of the most talented players in the world and I believe the price on the Swede this week is far too inflated.

Åberg has already won a signature event at Torrey Pines this year and getting over the hump in a big tournament should pay dividends for the 25-year-old going forward. Last year, Åberg finished eighth in his debut at TPC Sawgrass. Although he is relatively new to the tournament, the Swede is extremely familiar with the golf course as he’s been practicing there for months. He also competed at the Junior Players Championship. 

The stats for Åberg don’t tell the whole story, as they account for the three rounds he played while sick at the Farmers Insurance Open. Aside from that start, Ludvig has finished fifth, first and 22nd in three events. He struggled at times during last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational but shot a four-under 68 to finish his week on Sunday. 

Åberg is one of the best teeing it up and seems like a perfect fit to win the PGA Tour’s flagship event. 

Hideki Matsuyama +3000 (DraftKings)

Hideki Matsuyama is a player who has shown he can compete with the best of the best on the grand stage on multiple occasions. He has won the Masters as well as a signature event at Riviera and has eight additional PGA Tour victories.

Matsuyama won earlier in the season at the Sentry, which Cameron Smith did prior to his win at the 2022 Players. He fits every trend for Players winners and has a fantastic track record at the course including a fifth and a T6 in his past two trips. He was also the first-round leader in the 2020 event that was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Players with strong pedigrees tend to win at TPC Sawgrass and Matsuyama fits the bill. If he finds himself in a stare down with a Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy come Sunday, he won’t back down.

Sepp Straka +5000 (DraftKings)

Sepp Straka may not be considered one of the top players on the PGA Tour, but he should be. The Austrian is continuously disrespected on the odds board, but that may come to an end if he wins the Players Championship this week.

Players in good form contend at the Players and there are only a handful that could argue they’re in better form than Straka. He has a win and four additional top-15 finishes in his past six starts. Over his past 24 rounds, he ranks third in strokes-gained approach, third in strokes-gained ball striking and eighth in par-5 scoring average.

Straka is a Ryder Cupper who has demonstrated he can close out a golf tournament. If he gets in the mix he will be extremely dangerous at TPC Sawgrass.

Jason Day +5500 (DraftKings)

Jason Day found himself deep in contention at last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational until one bad swing (or mud ball?) took him out of the race. The Australian seems to be extremely confident at the moment after linking back up with his former coach, Colin Swatton.

“Some of the (putting) stuff that I was doing I was a little cramped, eyes too far over the ball—I’ve always been a person that has had my eyes on the inside of the ball, like a long way. Just a head position change, a little bit further away, hands, arms up a little bit higher so the shoulders can pitch a lot better or swing a little bit better," Day said after shooting a Friday 64 at Bay Hill.

“Speed has improved dramatically since then, (and my) stroke’s improved dramatically.”

The added confidence combined with his extremely strong history at TPC Sawgrass, which includes a win in 2016, should have the former world number one in a great headspace for this week's Players Championship.

Michael Kim +7500 (FanDuel)

I went back and forth on this pick due to my inability to truly envision Michael Kim winning The Players with the vast majority of the players who've won the event being stars on the PGA Tour. However, I decided his form is just too strong to ignore.

In his past five starts, Kim has finished no worse than T13 and has a T2 at the WM Phoenix Open and a 4th place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. In his past 12 rounds, the Cal product ranks 1st in the field in strokes-gained total. We've seen time and time again that the "hot" player can come into TPC Sawgrass and win.

As great as Kim, has played, I believe he can still elevate his game at a course that suits his skill set, and Sawgrass qualifies. It's much shorter than Bay Hill where Kim contended, and he seems to be in control of both his driver and irons right now.

Last week, Kim was 50-1 in a similar field (albeit smaller), I just can't help but pull the trigger at a much better price at an event he's more suited to win.

Nick Taylor +15000 (DraftKings)

It may be hard to picture Nick Taylor winning the Players Championship but at this price he absolutely needs to be considered.

Over his past 24 rounds, the Canadian ranks first in the field in strokes-gained approach. He’s also an accurate driver of the ball who should be able to avoid the trouble at TPC Sawgrass.

Over the past handful of years, we’ve seen players who were in form and having the best season to date show up at the Players and compete. Taylor certainly fits the bill. He won the Sony Open in Hawaii and has a T9 at Torrey Pines in a signature event. This course is one that should suit Taylor a lot better than the ones he’s played at over the past month or so.

Last year we saw Brian Harman, a player with a similar skill set to Taylor, duel with Scottie Scheffler on Sunday at the Players. Nick Taylor is the type of player who can do something similar in 2025.