2025 Valspar Championship Betting Models, Picks: Conquering Copperhead

Players will face an extremely difficult test this week at the Copperhead course at Innisbrook Resort.

The PGA Tour will take on one of the toughest courses on the schedule this week at Innisbrook. / Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images

The PGA Tour will stay in Florida one more week for the Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead course at Innisbrook Resort, a challenging par-71 layout stretching 7,352 yards, features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with Poa Trivialis. Renowned for its difficulty, this course presents a formidable test for golfers, with hazards lurking at every turn. The iconic final stretch—holes 16, 17, and 18, collectively known as the “Snake Pit”—forms one of the most grueling three-hole sequences in golf, promising a thrilling and dramatic conclusion Sunday.

The Valspar Championship field features 156 golfers and while it doesn’t have the strength of a signature event it is nonetheless strong this year, including 24 of the top 50 players in the world rankings. Fans will still see a lot of top talent including Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, Jordan Spieth, Luke Clanton, Corey Conners, Tom Kim, Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka, Adam Scott, Billy Horschel and Sahith Theegala. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

• 2024: Peter Malnati (-12)
• 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
• 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
• 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
• 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
• 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
• 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
• 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
• 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

Key stats for Copperhead

Strokes-gained approach

Strokes-gained approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can't be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Strokes-gained approach over past 24 rounds

1. Henrik Norlander (+1.09)
2. Sepp Straka (+1.06) 
3. Justin Thomas (+0.91)
4. Joel Dahmen (+0.86) 
5. Doug Ghim (+0.86)

Good drive percentage

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good drive percentage over past 24 rounds:

1. Brice Garnett (88.8%) 
2. Ben Kohles (88.0%)
3. Neal Shipley (87.9%)
4. Hayden Buckley (87.7%)
5. Doug Ghim (87.5%)

Strokes-gained ball striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

Strokes-gained ball striking over past 24 rounds:

1. Joseph Bramlett (+1.35)
2. Joel Dahmen (+1.28)
3. Sepp Straka (+1.27)
4. Tommy Fleetwood (+1.17)
5. Doug Ghim (+1.09)

Bogey avoidance percentage

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, often the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey avoidance percentage over past 24 rounds:

1. Michael Kim (8.6%)
2. Brice Garnett (9.7%)
3. Paul Peterson (10.2%)
4. Tommy Fleetwood (10.6%)
5. Andrew Putnam (10.9%) 

Greens-in-regulation percentage

I am adding greens-in-regulation gained to the model to further include golfers who can control the golf ball. Consistently hitting fairways and greens will provide golfers with the best chance of winning this week.

Greens-in-regulation percentage over past 24 rounds:

1. Blades Brown (76.1%) 
2. Neal Shipley (75.3%) 
3. Steven Fisk (74.5%) 
4. Andrew Putnam (74.5%) 
5. Bud Cauley (74.3%) 

Strokes-gained off the tee on difficult driving courses with less than driver

Forgive the convoluted stat, but this will bring players into the fold who have had success hitting the fairway with less than driver when it’s crucial to do so. That will be the case on plenty of holes at Copperhead. 

Strokes-gained off the tee on difficult driving courses with less than driver over past 36 rounds:

1. Charley Hoffman (+1.29) 
2. Rafael Campos (+1.01) 
3. Adam Scott (+0.91) 
4. Jhonattan Vegas (+0.81) 
5. Nick Hardy (+0.81) 

Comparable course rankings

This season, I am going to generate a rankings list of the best players cumulatively at the comparable courses. For Copperhead, I am using TPC Sawgrass, Harbour Town, Riviera, Waialae, Colonial, TPC Southwind and TPC San Antonio.

Comparable course player rankings:

1. Viktor Hovland
2. Xander Schauffele
3. Tommy Fleetwood
4. Mac Meissner
5. Sam Burns
6. Matt Kuchar
7. Shane Lowry
8. Justin Thomas
9. Thorbjorn Olesen
10. Sahith Theegala

Valspar Championship model rankings

Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed: strokes-gained approach (24%), good drives gained (20%), strokes-gained ball-striking (16%), bogeys avoided (10%), greens-in-regulation gained (10%), comparable courses (10%), and strokes-gained off the tee on difficult driving courses with less than driver (10%). 

1. Sepp Straka
2. Tommy Fleetwood
3. Viktor Hovland
4. Justin Thomas
5. Charley Hoffman
6. Doug Ghim
7. Shane Lowry
8. Joel Dahmen
9. Adam Scott
10. Kurt Kitayama

Last week's picks for the Players Championship:

Ludvig Aberg (20-1): MC
Hideki Matsuyama (30-1): MC
Sepp Straka (55-1): T14
Patrick Cantlay (55-1, in play add): T12
Michael Kim (75-1): MC
Nick Taylor (150-1): MC

2025 Valspar Championship Picks

Corey Conners+2500 (DraftKings)

Corey Conners is playing brilliant golf and does exactly what is required to contend at Copperhead. The Canadian is one of the top ball strikers on the PGA Tour and that’s been on full display during the Florida swings where he’s finished third at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T6 at the Players Championship.

Over his past eight rounds (all in Florida), Conners ranks first in strokes-gained total and first in strokes-gained tee to green. What is surprising, however, is Conners’s recent form with the putter. While putting is typically the 33-year-old’s Achilles heel, he’s made some changes to address the weakness. For the vast majority of his career, Conners has used the Ping Anser blade putter. Prior to his start at Bay Hill, he switched to a Ping PLD Ally Blue Onset putter, which is a mallet. In the two starts with the new putter, he’s gained 2.8 (API) and 3.0 (Players) strokes putting. As we saw with Scottie Scheffler, switching from the blade to the mallet can make a huge difference.

Corey Conners has seen great results with a new putter. / Ping Golf

If Conners’s putting woes are in the past, he will be extremely difficult to beat at Copperhead with the way he strikes the ball.

Jordan Spieth +3000 (DraftKings)

After having offseason surgery that fixed a lingering wrist issue, Jordan Spieth has now made five starts in 2025. There have been some ups and downs over that time, but he's shown flashes of what made him a really good player in 2021-22. The most encouraging part of Spieth’s game has been the way he’s hitting the driver. He’s gained strokes off the tee in four consecutive starts.

I don’t always love backing players who have already won at a course, but Spieth is the type of player who loves going to “his” spots on the PGA Tour. The 13-time PGA Tour winner has won the John Deere Classic twice and has gotten in the mix at the same tournaments with frequency (The Masters, Valero Texas Open, RBC Heritage, Pebble Beach). He won the Valspar Championship in 2019 and finished third in 2023.

A few starts ago, Spieth showed moxie at a tough Florida track in his current form when he finished T9 at the Cognizant Classic. He was ninth in the field in putting, which is a good sign seeing as the greens will be similar this week. In his seven starts at Copperhead, Spieth has gained strokes putting six times.

A return to the winner’s circle for Spieth a week after Rory McIlroy won the Players would be a dream stretch for the PGA Tour.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +8000 (DraftKings)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout has quietly been playing some pretty solid golf this season. He finished T4 at the WM Phoenix Open and 19th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and I believe he’s much better suited to contend at a course like Copperhead.

Bezuidenhout is a grinder who is fantastic around the greens and with the putter. He’s also one of the best wind players in the field. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks fifth in the field in strokes-gained total in windy conditions. Leading that list is two-time winner of the Valspar, Sam Burns, which reassures me in my faith in Bezuidenhout this week.

South Africans have had a great deal of success at Copperhead. Charl Schwartzel won the event, and Retief Goosen has won it twice.

Bezuidenhout has yet to win on the PGA Tour but has three DP World Tour wins on difficult golf courses. He won the 2019 Andalucia Masters (at 10 under), the 2020 Alfred Dunhill Championship (14 under) and the 2020 South African Open (18 under).

The 30-year-old is a Presidents Cup player who can scramble for pars just about as well as anyone in the field. I like his chances on Sunday if he gets himself in the mix.

Charley Hoffman +12000 (DraftKings)

No one can defy father time, but I still believe Charley Hoffman is hitting the ball well enough to snag one more PGA Tour win before his 50th birthday.

Hoffman has been playing well, and despite being a few years older than his fellow competitors, the 48-year-old is keeping up with the younger generation in both driving distance and accuracy. His irons are as good as ever as he's gained strokes on approach in all seven of his starts this season.

Hoffman got into the mix earlier this season and finished fifth at the American Express. He also began his Players Championship with a strong effort. He gained 1.54 strokes on approach in the first round (he shot 2 over) and really scored well on Friday, shooting 7 under and gaining 6.8 strokes from tee to green. The round was overshadowed by Justin Thomas’s 62, but it was an incredible performance from Hoffman.

Over his past 24 rounds, Hoffman ranks first in the field in strokes-gained off the tee on difficult driving courses that require less than driver.

Hoffman still struggles with the putter, but Copperhead is a course where he can rely on his tee-to-green dependability. If it plays as tough as expected, Hoffman can survive in tough conditions and get to the winning score.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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