2022 U.S. Open Bettors' Roundtable: Experts Pick Favorites, Sleepers and Best Bets for Brookline
U.S. Open week has arrived, and given the various controversies surrounding the new LIV Golf circuit, this promises to be an Open unlike any other. From a betting perspective, several intriguing names arrive from LIV’s London event to join a field where many top players are in excellent form. And the Canadian Open just staged perhaps the most electric edition in its history. It should be a memorable week at Brookline – so how should you bet it?
To break it all down, we've once again convened a roundtable of veteran golf writers along with golf gambling and fantasy experts from SI.com and Rotowire.com to offer their unique insight and handicap this year's field. Joining this edition: Rotowire's Len Hochberg and Greg Vara, Sports Illustrated Gaming Expert Shawn Childs, and Morning Read's Bob Harig, Gary Van Sickle and Jeff Ritter. On to the questions:
LIV Golf's launch has dominated the news, and players who competed in London who had qualified for this U.S. Open will be allowed to play. But with so much controversy surrounding those participants, are any of them bettable this week?
Len Hochberg, Rotowire: I don't think many of them are bettable -- certainly not the top guys to win. Not really because of LIV, but because they weren't playing well to begin with. Dustin Johnson has fallen out of the top 10, Louis Oosthuizen's putting from last season was not sustainable and he has not played well in 2022. Sergio Garcia would be my favorite play considering his nice odds at 80-1, except for the fact he's the guy most likely to crumble from anti-LIV chants from the crowd.
Bob Harig, SI.com/Morning Read: If Dustin Johnson is on, he’s still one of the best in the world. His game has not been that far off, although he has not won in more than a year. He’s the best pick among those who were at the LIV event.
Shawn Childs, SI.com Gambling: The PGA Tour would hate to see any LIV Golf player win the U.S. Open. It would create drama at the event plus generate more conversations about the competing event. The players with the best chance of winning are Dustin Johnson (+2000), Louis Oosthuizen (+5000), and Patrick Reed (+8000).
Greg Vara, Rotowire: Will there be added distractions for the LIV players? Yes. Will it matter? I doubt it. Most of the players who have jumped already don’t seem like they care much about others’ opinions, so I don’t think their decisions to move tours will weigh heavy on them at all this week. With that said, I’m not fond of any of the LIV players this week, but it has nothing to do with the distraction factor. The LIV players just simply aren’t as good as the PGA Tour players.
Gary Van Sickle, SI.com/Morning Read: It's not the controversy that will keep me from betting them, it's their recent track records. Bryson DeChambeau is coming back from an injury and hasn't found any form yet. Dustin Johnson is sliding down the world rankings. Sergio Garcia? Charl Schwartzel? Ian Poulter? Those guys haven't been contending for any titles lately, and they don't look ready for prime time at a U.S. Open. But if you're willing to take reduced odds and go for a top-20 finish, some of those guys might have appeal. I am not dropping any pesos on them, however.
Jeff Ritter, SI.com/Morning Read: None for me, thanks. D.J. would probably be the most tempting, but he isn’t close to his usual top form. And no, I don’t think Charl Schwartzel is going to ride the wave to an additional $2 million payday this week.
Players of interest: Mickelson, Schauffele, Johnson and Thomas.
USA Today
The Country Club has hosted three U.S. Opens, and all were decided in a playoff. It hasn't staged an Open since Curtis Strange's win over Nick Faldo in 1988, but it also has some great Ryder Cup history as the site of the 1999 U.S. comeback. Where does Brookline rank among your favorite U.S. Open venues?
Van Sickle: Love the history – Francis Ouimet in 1913, Julius Boros over Arnold Palmer and Jacky Cupit in a playoff in '63, and Justin Leonard at the Ryder Cup. It has a classic Northeastern look – rocky, fescue, trees. But in the Northeast alone, it would rank behind Shinnecock Hills, Oak Hill, Winged Foot and Merion but I would put it above Baltusrol. Am looking forward to getting reacquainted with TCC.
Vara: Honestly, it’s not even on the list. Sure, it was the site of probably the most memorable Ryder Cup win for the U.S., but as for hosting the U.S. Open, 34 years is a long time. I honestly don’t remember much from 1988 other than Curtis Strange winning. What I do like is that two of the best players at the time, Strange and Faldo ended up in a playoff. I like courses where the cream rises to the top.
Ritter: Pebble Beach is my No. 1 and Brookline isn’t on my board at the moment – just don’t remember much about Strange’s win in ’88, and let’s face it, you can stage the Ryder Cup in a Bowl-a-Rama parking lot and it would still deliver drama. But I’m excited for Brookline return to the spotlight this week.
Harig: It’s a surprise it has not gone to The Country Club more often. The 1913 U.S. Open alone is reason to bring it back when possible, simply for the sheer history of what Ouimet’s victory meant to American golf. What better way to celebrate a U.S. Open than to have it at the place that really put golf in this country on the map? The other U.S. Opens won by Julius Boros and Curtis Strange are also iconic, and you can’t beat the drama of the U.S. comeback at the 1999 Ryder Cup.
Childs: I'm from Cape Cod, about an hour and 20 minutes away, so there is something to be said for liking the home venue. Boston has a rich tradition of championship teams, along with being an excellent college town. Golf is full of drama, and Brookline brings out the character of the best golfers in the world.
Hochberg: For all the history here, from being a charter member of the USGA in the late 1800s to perhaps the most seminal moment in U.S. golf history at the 1913 Open to Justin Leonard's putt at the 1999 Ryder Cup, Brookline is curiously lacking one thing: The USGA rarely goes there. Why? Three times in more than a century? Lastly in 1988? I'm not sure about the rest of you, but I wasn't around in 1913 and, since the question was specific to U.S. Opens, Brookline doesn't rank very high for me as an Open venue. How can it? That said, talk to me again on Sunday night.
What stats do you think are most important when assessing a players' U.S. Open chances this week?
Hochberg: As with all majors, perhaps the most important consideration is not a stat, is not quantifiable: It's handling the pressure and all things associated with playing in a major. Stats-wise, it will all start with keeping the ball in the narrow fairways. Doing so will make it far easier to get the ball on the smallest greens in major championship golf (outside of Pebble Beach). Yes, it always seems to come down to who makes the most putts, but I believe smaller greens minimize three-putts and bring poorer putters into the conversation.
Childs: I'm more of a present-form guy while also considering a player's history at certain events. Playing well at recent U.S. Opens is an important factor in my decision-making.
Van Sickle: Greens in regulation and proximity to the hole. In other words, iron play. However, that's based on obsolete observations. Golf today isn't the same as golf in 1988 or even '99. Those were before the Pro V1/ball revolution and the rise of the power hitter. Presumably the USGA will use rough to keep the course from being overwhelmed by big hitters ... and that's also what we thought about Winged Foot before Bryson DeChambeau dunked over it.
Vara: Driving accuracy is always paramount on a USGA setup, but this week, it’s going to be even more important. Brookline has tight fairways and small greens, so I don’t think this is a course that can be overpowered, that means avoiding the rough off the tee and hitting greens in regulation will be critical. As you might guess, there’s a correlation between accuracy of approach shots and overall success, but accuracy off the tee doesn’t always translate to success – most weeks, but it should this week.
Harig: It helps to do everything correctly, but hitting a lot of greens certainly has to be up there. Players are going to miss their share, and when they do, recovering is typically at a premium. So short game is also important. But the more birdies you putt for and two-putt pars you can make seem to be a simple formula.
Ritter: For many years, this was the week to break out the line, “You can’t win a U.S. Open from the rough.” Then Bryson DeChambeau went out and obliterated that trite little one-liner. This week I’m amending it to, “You can’t win a U.S. Open from the rough surrounding the green.” So, greens in reg is my top stat.
Who among the favorites (odds 30-1 or better in the SI Sportsbook) could disappoint?
Van Sickle: Dustin Johnson, your former world No. 1, is rapidly evaporating. He finished 8th in the LIV Tour London event, behind Hennie Du Plessis, Oliver Bekker and Adrian Otaegui. He is 30-1 odds and maybe he was just making excuses for jumping tours but he said he wants to do "other things." Sound like he may have lost his edge. I wouldn't put money on him until I seem some better results.
Hochberg: Viktor Hovland has never had a top-10 in a major. His chipping is kryptonite. Patrick Cantlay hasn't had a top-10 in his past 11 majors, which is something that makes no sense. Collin Morikawa simply has not been the same player this year. When his iron game is on, he should be the favorite in every U.S. Open. His iron game has not been quite as good as in past years and, like Hovland, is really struggling around the greens.
Childs: Brooks Koepka comes into the event with 22-1 odds. Unfortunately, he has only played in two tournaments (MC at the Masters and 55th at the PGA Championship) over the last 12 weeks. I love his resume at the U.S. Open, but he looks overpriced based on his 2022 form, which includes four missed cuts and two top-10s over 10 events.
Harig: Perhaps this is the week it comes together, but Collin Morikawa has been surprisingly quiet in 2022. He’s dropped from second in the world to seventh (it’s all relative, of course) and aside for a tie for second at the Genesis Invitational, has not been in contention much. In his last eight starts, he’s been outside of the top 20 six times, with two missed cuts.
Vara: Cam Smith (18-1) is having a great season, but he’s extremely erratic and his wayward drives are bound to get him in trouble this week. Smith ranks 136th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy and if he doesn’t outperform in that category this week, he’ll have trouble contending. Smith’s U.S. Open track record is not good either. He did post a T4 in his first U.S. Open in 2015, but since then, he’s failed to crack the top-30 in any of his five starts at the U.S. Open. Different courses, sure, but all USGA setups.
Ritter: There was a time when betting against Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka at a U.S. Open was a surefire way to lose money. This year, I think it’s smart. Neither guy is anywhere close to their top form.
Which long shot (odds 60-1 or longer in the SI Sportsbook) could surprise?
Childs: Patrick Reed. He’s always had an edge to his game with a love/hate relationship with fans. His play has been competitive over his eight seasons at the US Open (35th, 14th, MC, 13th, 4th, 32nd, 13th, and 19th). Reed flashed a couple of weeks ago at the Charles Schwab Challenge (7th), but his game has been off in 2022. He putts well with an excellent short game, and his odds (+8000) look favorable.
Vara: Davis Riley (66-1). Few players on the PGA Tour have played better over the past two months than Riley and while it’s extremely rare to pick up your first PGA Tour win at a major, it has been done. Riley currently sits inside the top-25 in the FedEx standings and perhaps more importantly this week, he’s accurate off the tee and with his irons. He ranks inside the top-60 on the PGA Tour in both driving accuracy and GIR percentage.
Van Sickle: Justin Rose, 80-1, showed signs of life at the RBC Canadian Open. He'll be coming into Brookline hot and could be a surprise.
Ritter: Top-10 machine Davis Riley (66-1) is ringing up high finishes with his ball-striking, and while I don’t think he’s going to win this week, I could very easily see a Top-5 as the rookie continues to get comfortable. The Tour’s Rookie of the Year race is a good one, by the way.
Hochberg: This is not a U.S. Open track like we often see. It's not uber-long Torrey Pines. Driving accuracy, iron play and skill around the greens are what I'm looking at. At 60-1 or more, Webb Simpson is the first guy that jumps out at me. He hasn't had a great season -- heck, this will be only his 10th tournament in 2022 -- but he did have a nice PGA with a tie for 20th and the round of the tournament with that Saturday 65.
Harig: Corey Conners. The Canadian golfer is a ball-striking machine, and perfectly suited for a venue like this. He contended at the British Open last year until his putter let him down. That is seemingly the key for Conners, but he is someone to keep an eye on who is not getting much attention.
There can only be one: who wins this U.S. Open and why?
Harig: Justin Thomas. His close call in Canada won’t hurt at all. He knows he’s playing great, having won the PGA Championship a month ago and going head-to-head with Rory McIlroy on Sunday. It would be great to see that again this weekend.
Vara: Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas are going to be very popular picks this week, but I rarely go chalk in the majors. With that in mind, I’m going with my gut again and picking Viktor Hovland, who should enter this week with little to no expectations. Hovland was an easy target to fade at the Masters and the PGA Championship because of his shaky short game, but this week, getting off the tee in good shape will be more important than the short game. He’s one of a few elite players on the PGA Tour that ranks inside the top-40 in driving accuracy and quite honestly, I think he feels he has something to prove this week after struggling to contend at the Masters and the PGA Championship.
Childs: Based on his recent success in major tournaments (Masters: 6th and 2nd; PGA Championship: 2nd and 8th; U.S. Open: MC and 6th), Will Zalatoris should be in the heat of the battle again this year. Over his past seven tournaments, he failed to make the cut twice while delivering five top 10s (5th, 6th, 4th, 2nd, and 5th). Zalatoris still doesn’t have a PGA win over his 43 chances. It wouldn’t surprise me to see his first win come in a major.
Hochberg: I'm a little surprised with myself for saying this, but Xander Schauffele. He's been in five U.S. Opens and never finished worse than seventh. That's mind-boggling. And looking at his numbers for this season, they're actually quite good, better than his leaderboard results. He's top-10 in strokes gained: approach, tee-to-green and total, he's one of the straightest of the longer drivers and he's also ranked seventh in par-4 efficiency for 450-500 yards (there are eight par-4s of at least 450). Yes, he oddly missed the cut at the Players and the Masters, but he tied for 13th at the PGA. Like I said, his stats say he's been far better than his results.
Van Sickle: Matthew Fitzpatrick, 25-1, has been playing well all year thanks to his added distance off the tee. He's got a complete game, has been in contention a lot and, oh, by the way, he's one of the few players with any TCC local knowledge. He won his U.S. Amateur title there.
Ritter: Five different choices from our panel so far. I’d like to be different and give readers a sixth name to consider -- Rory is extremely tempting – but I think Hochberg might have it right: Xander Schauffele has proven to be a great play at a U.S. Open, he’s overdue to win something big, and his recent form and combination of length and accuracy has me intrigued. This could be his time.