2022 WM Phoenix Open: Betting Odds, Favorites and Sleeper Picks for TPC Scottsdale
Jordan Spieth was right, when Tim Hoge gets into contention, he does not back down.
Spieth’s valuation of Hoge’s play from four years ago may have been on a craps table, but Spieth was reminded Hoge brings the same gall to the golf course as well. Spieth held the lead at Pebble Beach late on Sunday until he bogeyed the 17th hole and Hoge closed with three birdies on the final five. It was Hoge’s first win on the PGA Tour and first professional win since the 2011 Canadian Tour Players Cup.
We took one step forward at Torrey Pines and three steps back at Pebble Beach regarding the picks. Both midrange pick Mito Pereira and sleeper Matt Kuchar missed the cut, while favorite Maverick McNealy missed the top-20 by three strokes. 2022 has not been nice to us so far, but we’re looking forward.
We now head to the desert where plenty of familiar names will be looking to “win the crowd” at TPC Scottsdale for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This tournament has leaned into its reputation as the “biggest party in golf” and has created an atmosphere on No. 16 unlike any place else on Tour. The event has become synonymous with Super Bowl weekend, so the PGA Tour pushed it back a week following the NFL’s lead this past year. Fans will be encouraged to raise the decibel levels rather than stay quiet, so let’s see who will handle the pressure best.
According to SI Sportsbook, world No. 1 and Arizona State grad Jon Rahm is the favorite at +750. To follow is world No. 7 Justin Thomas at +1200. Next up is reigning FedEx Cup champion Patrick Cantlay at +1400. To close out the notables are two of the hottest players on the planet in Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland at +1600.
For our favorite, we’re going with the guy who’s played just as well as world No. 1 Jon Rahm lately but has twice the value in Viktor Hovland at +1600. Over the past 14 months, Hovland has four worldwide wins including two on the PGA Tour and two more on the DP World Tour, including his most recent start at Dubai Desert Classic. The now world No. 3 returns to the PGA Tour after ranking in the top-15 in strokes gained: off-the-tee, approach, tee-to-green and total last season. He’s only made one other start at the Phoenix Open, which resulted in a missed cut, but his game is now at an elite level where experience should not factor in as much.
For a midrange pick, Webb Simpson at +4000 is where we are looking. In comparison to Hovland, Simpson is a “horse for the course.” The 2020 champion was runner-up in 2017 and owns three additional top-10 finishes at the Phoenix Open. Prior to the Sony Open, Simpson had a nice end to his fall schedule finishing in the top-17 in each start to finish out 2021. Simpson is third in strokes gained: total over the past 24 rounds at TPC Scottsdale and that is plenty of sample size to fire on this week.
For a sleeper, Rickie Fowler at +7500 is worth the flier. His recent game has not been stellar, but something about the crowd, layout and all-around vibe brings the best out of the player whose last PGA Tour victory came here in 2019. In 2010, Fowler broke onto the scene here losing in a playoff. More recently, he added another playoff loss in 2016 and a T-4 in 2017. There’s no better place on Tour for the once top-5 player in the world to begin his ascent back among the game’s elite.
2021-22 picks scoreboard:
Winners: 1
Top 5s: 4
Top 10s: 1
Top 20s: 1
Here are some notable WM Phoenix Open odds, according to SI Sportsbook:
- Jon Rahm +750
- Justin Thomas +1200
- Patrick Cantlay +1400
- Viktor Hovland +1600
- Hideki Matsuyama +1600
- Xander Schauffele +2000
- Jordan Spieth +2000
- Daniel Berger +2200
- Scottie Scheffler +2500
- Brooks Koepka +2800
- Sam Burns +3300
- Tony Finau +4000
- Webb Simpson +4000
- Bubba Watson +4000
- Seamus Power +4000
- Louis Oosthuizen +4000
- Matt Fitzpatrick +4000
- Adam Scott +4500
- Corey Conners +5000
- Russell Henley +5000
- Abraham Ancer +5000
- Harold Varner +5000
- Talor Gooch +5500
- Billy Horschel +5500
- Tom Hoge +6000
- Luke List +6000
- Harris English +6000
- Maverick McNealy +6600
- Max Homa +6600
- Rickie Fowler +7500
- Matt Kuchar +8000
- Francesco Molinari +8000
- Kevin Kisner +8000
- Si-Woo Kim +8000
- Andrew Putnam +9000
- Brian Harman +9000
- Keith Mitchell +9000
- Joel Dahmen +9000
- Branden Grace +9000
- Gary Woodland +10000
- Denny McCarthy +10000
- Russell Knox +10000
- Cam Davis +10000
- Pat Perez +10000
- Troy Merritt +10000
- Lucas Herbert +10000
- Aaron Wise +10000
- Keegan Bradley +10000
- Michael Thompson +12500
- Kevin Streelman +12500
- Adam Hadwin +12500
- Alex Noren +12500
- Mito Pereira +12500
- Carlos Ortiz +12500
- Chris Kirk +12500
- Kyoung-Hoon Lee +12500
- Matt Jones +12500
- Brendon Todd +12500
- Charles Howell +12500
- Brendan Steele +15000
- Emiliano Grillo +15000
- Hudson Swafford +15000
- Wyndham Clark +15000
- Garrick Higgo +15000
- Stewart Cink +15000
- Sahith Theegala +15000
- Patton Kizzire +15000
- Matthew NeSmith +15000
- Martin Laird +15000
- Matt Wallace +15000
- Charley Hoffman +15000
- Doug Ghim +15000
- Chez Reavie +15000
- Nate Lashley +15000
- Nick Taylor +15000
- Beau Hossler +15000
- Dylan Frittelli +15000
- Brandt Snedeker +15000
- Lucas Glover +15000
- Zach Johnson +15000
- Patrick Rodgers +15000