2023 WM Phoenix Open: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for TPC Scottsdale
When it comes to wagering on the WM Phoenix Open, many of us feel quite confident. We know the course and many of the best players have competed there before. It is played in the Arizona desert at TPC Scottsdale’s Stadium Course. On paper the challenge 134 players face this week looks like this:
- The course is a par 71 Tom Weiskopf design measuring 7,261 yards
- The card displays three par 5s, four par 3s, and 11 par 4s
- 67 bunkers dot the green fingers set in the barren desert landscape
- Water comes into play on seven holes, three of which have a bogey rate over 16%
The greens are covered in a mix of dormant Bermudagrass and overseeded Poa Trivialis. Phoenix has faced a cool and damp winter, and I expect the greens to be quick and the surrounding chipping areas to be sparsely populated with grass, keeping those lies extra tight. Even though years of coverage have trained our perspective that WMPO is a birdie race, the average winning score over the past decade is only 17 under par.
Getting to that winning total takes aggressive play and a keen understanding of how those winners went about their business. After several layers of research this week, I have found something very interesting. When you look behind the curtain at the Stadium Course, the strokes gained don’t necessarily pair up with our general preconceived notion of the Phoenix Open.
Ignore the redundant rhetoric this week and follow a PGA professional toward success. These courses aren’t always obvious to decipher. Together, we can outsmart the operators and continue to tail trends that truly make a betting difference.
These are the three biggest misconceptions on what it takes to win the WM Phoenix Open:
1. No better place to begin than the tee box. Scottsdale sits at 1,250 feet above sea level. That elevation is a large part of why WMPO is the average driving distance leader on the PGA Tour. Players can let the shaft out and gain max rewards. Most analysts believe this will mitigate driving distance. In looking at the winner’s profile, each of the last 10 champions gained strokes on the field off the tee.
Of course, Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama and Gary Woodland are recent champions. Yet so are Webb Simpson and Rickie Fowler. Did you know Rickie gained 5.6 strokes against the field when he won? If 10 out of 10 gained, that is a significant trend and one I would watch for this week with strokes-gained off the tee leaders in the field like Jon Rahm, Cam Young and Rory McIlroy.
2. Misperception No. 2 comes on the greens. Many pundits believe this week to be an easy putting week. Although the statistics do show more putts are made over 15 feet than the PGA Tour average, lowering the rim on a basketball court benefits LeBron more than it does me!
When greens are easier to putt, it not only helps bad putters, but the great ones even more. In the last five years, the winner has gained an average of 5.4 strokes against the field on the greens. That’s a full shot more than those champions gained on approach in the same stretch. Don’t overlook the best putters in this field like Taylor Montgomery, Maverick McNealy and Andrew Putnam. Give them several birdie opportunities on basic greens and they will differentiate themselves.
3. My last misconception covers the approach skill it takes to win at TPC Scottsdale. Approximately 60% of the strokes into the green come from 125-200 yards. In that approach range, over a quarter of the shots are played from 150-175 yards. Skill with a mid-iron is tremendously important at TPC.
Seven of the last eight WMPO winners are major champions. Courses that crown major winners generally test those long irons. The remaining courses on tour are usually a wedge fest. TPC Scottsdale falls right in between. Over the last 10 years, the winners have not only gained 5.5 strokes against the field on approach, but they have hit the ball nearly 50 feet closer to their target in that 150-175 range.
In a tournament that has 22 of the top 25 players in the world competing, that is a significant way to differentiate oneself. Tom Kim, Collin Morikawa and Joel Dahmen are definitely three iron players I’d watch this week who lead the tour in targeting their mid-irons.
Picks to Win: Collin Morikawa, Tom Kim
Both Collin Morikawa (+1600 at SI Sportsbook) and Tom Kim (+2500) were built to play desert golf. The elevation gives them a driving edge and their approach game is second to none. Tom Kim is ranked second in the field in strokes-gained tee to green and strokes-gained approach. He is third in the field for proximity from 150-175 yards. You’ll see his name near the top on Sunday.
Before Tom, Collin had no equal in mid-iron play. He’s second in the field for good drive percentage and fifth on approach. In two starts this year he’s finished second and third. Take both to win this week and reap the rewards on Super Bowl Sunday.
Last week's picks: Seamus Power (T15) and Joel Dahmen (T41) fell from contention in the wild two-day third round.
Place: Patrick Cantlay
It took a playoff against Scottie Scheffler to stop Patrick Cantlay from winning the WMPO last year. SI’s Sportsbook is offering +100 odds on a Top 20 finish for the former FedEx Cup Champion. Even money on a player to finish in the top 20 who is ranked fifth in the Official World Golf Ranking? Yes, I’m all-in on that one!
Last week's pick: Tom Hoge (T48) didn't shoot in the 60s all week.
Showdown: Si Woo Kim Over Wise
We weren’t the only ones who suffered from a bad stretch of weather last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Matt NeSmith certainly did and cost us our first showdown loss of the year. Well, the streak will start again when you go to DraftKings and take Si Woo Kim over Aaron Wise (-110). The normally consistent Wise has been off in his approach game losing strokes to the field over his last five starts. Take this matchup against the Sony Open winner Kim and restart the winning streak.
Last week's pick: As mentioned, Matthew NeSmith (T57) came up short against hot-finishing Taylor Pendrith (T5).
Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Jon Rahm +750
Rory McIlroy +800
Scottie Scheffler +1200
Xander Schauffele +1400
Collin Morikawa +1600
Patrick Cantlay +1800
Justin Thomas +2000
Tony Finau +2000
Max Homa +2200
Sungjae Im +2500
Tom Kim +2500
Cameron Young +2800
Hideki Matsuyama +3000
Viktor Hovland +3300
Jordan Spieth +3500
Matt Fitzpatrick +3500
Keith Stewart is an award-winning PGA Professional and founder of Read The Line, a leading golf betting insights service covering the PGA Tour which will raise your betting acumen (and hopefully your bankroll). Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow on TikTok, Instagram and Twitter.