Who Will Be the Home Run King of 2021?
With the never-ending chatter about the baseball–and whether it will be juiced, deadened or something in-between–it's hard to know what to expect when it comes to home run totals. What we do know is someone will hit more big flies this year than anyone else. Last season it was Luke Voit (22). In 2019 it was Pete Alonso (53). In 2018 it was Khris Davis (48). SI's MLB experts weigh in with who they think will be the Home Run King of 2021.
Tom Verducci: Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres
When in doubt, go with the guy who hits the ball the hardest.
Fernando Tatis Jr. gets to play his first full season in the big leagues, and it should be massive. Last year he led the majors with an average exit velocity of 95.9 MPH, easily the best in baseball. His 17 homers last year in 59 games translate to 45 in 155 games, but there is more in that tank. Last season Tatis slugged .785, but his expected slugging, based on how hard he hit the ball, was a preposterous .835.
He is only 22 years old. The last home run champion who was that young? Bryce Harper in 2015. The entire list of players that young who hit 45 home runs? Eddie Mathews (47 at 21), Joe DiMaggio (46 at 22) and Johnny Bench (45 at 22).
Emma Baccellieri: Mike Trout, Angels
Mike Trout has led baseball in runs, walks, stolen bases, batting average, and OPS. He's been the OPS+ leader in four of the last five seasons, and he's one of just three players to hit more than 200 homers since 2015. But he's never been a home run leader! It feels silly to call him an out-of-the-box pick for, well, anything. But it is a bit wild that he hasn't led baseball here before—he hit more than 40 homers in both 2015 and 2019—and I think that streak can end in 2021 with, let's say, 47 HRs.
Connor Grossman: Trevor Story, Rockies
This is going to be a fun storyline to follow. Slated to be a free agent at the end of this season, it's hard to imagine Story signing an extension with the Rockies. And with Colorado expected to be ... bad ... will the team trade yet another franchise cornerstone? If he is traded that could squash his chances at claiming the home run crown: Story's hit 84 career homers in Denver and 50 away from his home park. I'll roll the dice and say no matter how many teams Story plays for this season, he's going to lead the majors with 48 big flies.
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Will Laws: Juan Soto, Nationals
I'm going with Juan Soto, who did a pretty good Barry Bonds impersonation for 47 games last year while leading the majors in on-base percentage and slugging percentage. His 212 OPS+ was the highest by any player since Bonds in 2004 and the 26th highest ever. His 13 home runs put him on a 45-homer pace over 162 games. The Nationals got their 22-year-old wunderkind some lineup protection in Kyle Schwarber and Josh Bell during the offseason, so I'm betting he tops that already torrid pace and unlocks yet another level of production.
Matt Martell: Gleyber Torres, Yankees
Two years ago, Gleyber Torres hit 38 home runs over 144 games in his age-22 season. Last year, he hit three over 42 games, but he missed time and played through injuries. He also said returned from the pandemic shutdown not in playing shape because he didn't have access to team facilities to workout. Now, after a "normal" offseason, it's reasonable for Torres not only to match but also to improve upon his 2019 performance. He has an advanced approach at the plate and impeccable bat control, and at 24 years old, he's yet to truly tap into his power stroke. That's why he'll lead the bigs with 44 home runs.
Nick Selbe: Matt Olson, Athletics
The A's slugger had a career-worst 31.4% strikeout rate last season and hit a dismal .195, but he still was on a 38-home run pace for a 162-game season. From 2017-19, Olson hit .256/.344/.518 with 89 home runs in 348 games. In 2019, he ranked in the top 10 in average launch angle, exit velocity and barrels percentage. If he can revert to his career norm in contact rate, he should be in store for a monster year in 2021.
