Inside the Numbers: Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal’s Battle for Pitching Supremacy

The two Cy Young favorites are remarkably similar in their dominance.

Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal reacts after finishing a pitch in the sixth inning against Chicago Cubs at Comerica Park in Detroit. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Major League Baseball has seen a ton of phenomenal pitching this season, but two starters have lapped everyone with their dominance. Not surprisingly, it's the two guys who were the most dominant hurlers last season as well.

Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes has left no doubt he's the best starting pitcher in the National League. While not getting an ounce of help from his teammates, Skenes has put up remarkable numbers when he's been on the bump. So far this season, the 23-year-old righty is 4–6 with a 1.88 ERA.

In the American League, Detroit Tigers lefty Tarik Skubal is somehow improving on last year’s AL Cy Young campaign. The 28-year-old is baffling opponents with his elite stuff en route to a 6–2 record with a 2.16 ERA and 105 strikeouts in 83 1/3 innings.

Skenes and Skubal are almost certain to start the 2025 All-Star Game for their respective leagues. They have both dialed things up a notch over the last few weeks, separating themselves from the rest of the field.

For now, they're staring each other down as they battle for the title of baseball's most dominant pitcher. Here's a look inside the numbers of that competition.

1 — Number of wins in the last eight starts for Skenes. He is somehow 1–4.

1.52 — Skenes's ERA in those starts to go along with 53 strikeouts in 53 1/3 innings.

1.47 — Skubal's ERA in his last 12 starts. He's 7–0 in them.

5 — Walks in those Skubal starts. Over his last 79 2/3 innings, he has struck out 101 batters, while walking five and plunking three.

9 — Total walks in 83 1/3 innings this season for Skubal.

0.81 — Skubal's WHIP, tied for best in MLB.

0.85 — Skenes's WHIP, third in MLB.

2.34 — Skubal's xERA, second in baseball.

2.32 — Skenes's xERA, best in baseball.

3.6 — Skenes's WAR, second among MLB pitchers.

3.7— Skubal's WAR, best among MLB pitchers.

2.9 — Skenes's fWAR, second among MLB pitchers.

3.6 — Skubal's fWAR, tops among pitchers in MLB.

3.5 — Average run support per start Skenes receives, which ranks 120th in MLB.

4.7 — Average run support per start for Skubal, which ranks 51st in MLB.

.156 — Opposing batting average against Skubal's changeup, the pitch he throws most.

.196 — Opposing batting average against Skenes's four-seam fastball, the pitch he throws most often.

.499 — OPS of opposing hitters against Skubal, tied for best in MLB.

.499 — OPS of opposing hitters against Skenes, tied for best in MLB.

97.9 mph — Skubal's average four-seam fastball velocity, third among MLB starters.

98.4 mph — Skenes's average four-seam velocity, best among MLB starters.

That is as tight a comparison as can be. Skubal reigns in some categories and gets better run support, while Skenes leads in others and doesn't get as much help.

Both guys are power pitchers who blow away their competition with overpowering fastballs, and each owns a dominant secondary offering. Skenes's splitter and wipeout slider are two of the best pitches in baseball, while Skubal's changeup is so devastating he actually throws it more than his four-seamer.

The Tigers are scheduled to face the Pirates in Pittsburgh next week, but Skubal and Skenes are currently scheduled to miss facing each other by a day. It appears we're going to have to wait until July in Atlanta to see them toe the same mound.

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