Are Pirates Actually Unlucky? Deep Dive Into Ben Cherington's Comments
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PITTSBURGH — As the Pittsburgh Pirates sit at 8-14 and in last place in the NL Central, general manager Ben Cherington addressed the team’s offensive woes in a pregame press conference Friday, suggesting that bad luck — not just poor performance — has played a role in their struggles. But do the underlying numbers support that claim? Let's take a look at the numbers, provided by the ever-useful Baseball Savant leaderboards.
The Pirates rank last in the National League in batting average (.202), on-base percentage (.286), slugging (.318), and OPS (.614), a brutal start for a lineup that the front office hoped would take a step forward this season. While Cherington pointed to "internal measurements" indicating some players are "hitting into a lot of bad luck," publicly available batted-ball data paints a more complicated picture.
Third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes stands out as one of the few Pirates who might have a legitimate case for misfortune. His -.082 difference between expected batting average (xBA) and actual batting average (BA) ranks 13th-worst in MLB, suggesting he’s been somewhat unlucky on well-struck balls.
MLB The Show developers need to fix this. How is this not a hit?
— Platinum Ke’Bryan (@PlatinumKey13) April 19, 2025
107.9 MPH exit velocity, .680 xBA pic.twitter.com/VRBSV5bDS0
Infielder Enmanuel Valdez also ranks 25th in that category, with seven of the Pirates’ 10 regular hitters posting negative differentials — meaning they’re underperforming their expected stats on batting average. But again, none of the players have numbers that individually stand out and suggest terrible luck.
When it comes to power production, the Pirates probably aren’t being held back by bad luck. Hayes ranks highest on the team in the gap between expected slugging (xSLG) and actual slugging (SLG), but even he sits just 41st in MLB — hardly an outlier.
Similarly, in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), which accounts for quality of contact and removes ballpark factors, Hayes again leads the Pirates but doesn’t crack the top 40.
Cherington’s assertion that "a bunch of guys" are underperforming based on contact quality may hold some truth, but the broader issue appears to be a lack of high-end offensive talent. Beyond Oneil Cruz, the Pirates lack consistent power threats, and their contact-heavy approach hasn’t translated into runs. Even the speed and high-volume of stolen bases that we saw in the first week of the season has slowed.
"The offense hasn’t got going yet," Cherington admitted. "I believe it will, and there are a few components with that."
Whether those components involve internal improvement, external additions, or simply better luck remains to be seen. But for now, the numbers suggest Pittsburgh’s struggles are more about who’s in the lineup than how the baseball gods are treating them.
Ethan Merrill is from Grand Rapids, MI, and brings with him a diverse background of experiences. After graduating from Michigan State University with a degree in journalism, he worked with the Arizona Diamondbacks for three seasons before settling in the Pittsburgh area in 2020. With a passion for sports and a growing connection to his community, Ethan brings a fresh perspective to covering the Pittsburgh Pirates.