Don't like my 2013-14 NBA picks? Hear me out ...

The problem with predicting the West is to decide which of the many qualified teams to leave out. By my account, there are a dozen playoff contenders in the

Ian Thomsen | Oct 25, 2013

Don't like my 2013-14 NBA picks? Hear me out ... /

Ian Thomsen is picking the Grizzlies to miss the playoffs, and Kevin Durant and Co. to win the title. — Ian Thomsen is picking the Grizzlies to miss the playoffs, and Kevin Durant and Co. to win the title :: Jamie Squire/Getty Images

The problem with predicting the West is to decide which of the many qualified teams to leave out. By my account, there are a dozen playoff contenders in the West, including the top regular-season five of the Clippers, Thunder, Spurs, Rockets and Warriors. At No. 6, I went with the controversial pick of the Lakers, because 1) it's only right to show faith in Bryant and 2) this team reminds me of the Knicks under coach Mike D'Antoni early in the 2010-11 season. Back then, New York spread the floor around Amar'e Stoudemire and surprised the league with a slew of role players who had little value going into that season. In this case, the Lakers will be spreading the court around Pau Gasol, with Steve Nash (and backups Steve Blake and Jordan Farmar) playing out of the flow and Kobe arriving out of the trainers' room sometime in the early season.

I went with the Mavericks as the No. 7 seed based on the same reasoning as the Lakers: Nowitzki enters the season with something to prove after two disappointing years, and I'm not going to pick against him as surely as I wouldn't dismiss Bryant. I've also gone with the Timberwolves as a playoff team at No. 8 thanks to my belief in Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio.

The Grizzlies and Nuggets, who ranked in the top five of their conference last year, will be adjusting to new coaches. Memphis has been deconstructing for the last year under new ownership and management, while the Nuggets figure to spend this year adapting their unique roster around Brian Shaw while waiting for the return of leading scorer Danilo Gallinari. There will be no collapse by either team, as both will be in the playoff race all year. But there will be no 50-win season either, not with the improvements of the Blazers, Pelicans and other rivals in that highly competitive conference.

Published Oct 25, 2013

IAN THOMSEN

Senior Writer, Sports Illustrated Sports Illustrated Senior Writer Ian Thomsen, who joined the magazine in 1998, is one of SI's top basketball scribes. Along with writing columns and features for SI, Thomsen is a frequent contributor to SI.com. Before joining SI, Thomsen spent six years in Europe as the sports columnist for the International Herald Tribune, the world's largest international English-language daily. While at the paper Thomsen wrote about an array of sports for a global audience, including the major world and European soccer tournaments, the 1995 Rugby World Cup, Olympic Games, Ryder Cups, Grand Slam tennis events, Grand Prix auto races and, very rarely, cricket. Thomsen, who graduated from Northwestern with a journalism degree in 1983, was a feature writer for The National Sports Daily during its short, expensive run of 1990-91. His first job was with The Boston Globe, where he covered Doug Flutie's Boston College Eagles and all three of the Celtics-Lakers NBA Finals of the 1980s. Thomsen was a feature writer at SI before taking on the NBA beat fulltime in 2000. With Luis Fernando Llosa and Melissa Segura, Thomsen covered the 2001 scandal of overaged Little League pitcher Danny Almonte and wrote the first SI cover story on Kobe Bryant in 1998. Thomsen lives with his wife and two children near Boston.