As has been the case for much of the season, most of the top values on this week’s slate are high-priced running backs. The reason for this theme is that pricing has been quite efficient this season, which will almost always result in high-volume backs catapulting to the top of a value report. Because there haven’t been many obvious cheap plays this year, most weeks have forced owners to choose one expensive play and fill out the rest of their roster with players in the middle pricing tier. This week sets up for more of a stars and scrubs approach, at least in cash games, since there are a handful of plays that free up a lot of salary.
The following will highlight the most notable values from the 4for4 Lineup Generator for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Editor’s note: “Value” doesn’t necessarily mean inexpensive, but rather the best bang for your DFS buck. These players, regardless of price tag, project to give you the most production per dollar this week.
Le’Veon Bell ($9,400) @ Colts
Only one player is priced higher than Bell on FanDuel this week, but he is still the top value of the week across all positions, according to 4for4’s Value Reports. Pittsburgh is favored by 10.5 points and Vegas projects the Steelers for 27.25 points, the second-highest projected point total of the week. Indianapolis ranks no better than 24th against any skill position based on 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric, and Bell has virtually been the Steelers entire offense. Bell has accounted for over 56% of Pittsburgh’s touches this year and he leads the league in opportunities inside the 10-yard line. No team has allowed more total touchdowns to opposing backs this year than the Colts.
Mohamed Sanu ($5,900) vs Cowboys
Julio Jones is dealing with what is assumed to be a high-ankle sprain and is questionable for Sunday. Even if Jones does play, a study by 4for4’s Chris Raybon shows that lower leg injuries have had a noticeably negative impact on wide receiver performance. Either way, Sanu is likely to see an uptick in targets in a game with the highest projected over/under of the week. The Cowboys rank 23rd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers and teams have thrown in the red zone against Dallas at the third-highest rate in the league. Sanu leads Atlanta in red-zone targets, converting 3-of-8 looks inside the red zone into scores.
Jordan Howard ($6,100) vs Packers
Since Mitch Trubisky took over as the starting quarterback in Chicago, Jordan Howard has accounted for 58% of the team’s touches. The Bears are the only team that runs more than 50% of the time when the game is within a single score, and as 5.5-point home favorites, they are likely to find themselves in a game script that favors running the ball even more often. Green Bay has the fourth-lowest average time of possession since Brett Hundley took over in Week 6, which suggests more possessions for the Bears and extra touches for Howard.
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($4,900) vs Jets
This week, the Buccaneers face a Jets defense that has allowed the most passing touchdowns of any defense in the league and surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position, despite facing just one top-12 fantasy quarterback all season. The Jets stand out as one of the most obvious pass funnels of any defense—New York ranks 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, but they rank 10th against running backs. This plays right into Tampa Bay’s game plan, as only one team has thrown at a higher rate all year.