- Finding the best bang for your DFS buck in Week 4.
The two remaining primetime games this week have totals higher than 48 points, two four of the teams playing in those games are expected to exceed 25 points. The most notable offenses still left to play are the Chiefs and Steelers, teams that have produced some of the most popular DFS plays early in the season. With those two games off the main DFS slate, as well as Thursday’s Vikings-Rams contest, expect ownership to fall heavily on the Bengals-Falcons and Saints-Giants games.
The following will highlight the most notable values from the 4for4 Lineup Generator for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Editor’s note: “Value” doesn’t necessarily mean inexpensive, but rather the best bang for your DFS buck. These players, regardless of price tag, project to give you the most production per dollar this week.
Giovani Bernard ($6,400) at Falcons
With Joe Mixon likely out again, Bernard pops as a top value for the second straight week. In Mixon’s absence in Week 3, Bernard accounted for 100% of Cincinnati's backfield touches, including five catches on nine targets. While the Bengals are underdogs in Atlanta, Bernard’s work in the receiving game gives him a relatively safe floor against a Falcons defense that ranks in the bottom two in receptions and receiving yards allowed to running backs. In 4for4’s initial schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) rankings, the Falcons rank 27th against running backs.
Jarvis Landry ($7,000) at Raiders
Through three weeks, no player has accounted for a higher percentage of team targets than Landry, and he gets a boost this week with Baker Mayfield under center. Oakland's defense ranks in the bottom three in sacks and quarterback pressures, while allowing the third-most yards to wide receivers. Given ample time to throw, Mayfield will have plenty of time to let the deep routes that Cleveland’s coaching staff has drawn up for Landry this year develop. No receiver priced below $8,000 projects as a better value than Landry this week, according to 4for4.
Andy Dalton ($5,400) at Falcons
Dalton tops 4for4’s quarterback value report against a Falcons defense that ranks 28th in quarterback aFPA. With an over/under currently at 52.5 and a spread of just four, this game has shootout potential, especially with two defenses that rank in the bottom 10 in passing yards allowed. The Bengals have thrown at a top-five rate in neutral game script (game within a single score) this year, and Dalton ranks in the top 10 in fantasy points per pass attempt through three weeks.
Sterling Shepard ($4,900) vs. Saints
Shepard has seen at least seven targets in two games this season, and his volume should rise with Evan Engram sidelined because of a knee injury. With Engram out for just a portion of the game last week, Shepard accounted for 24% of the Giants’ targets. This week, New York faces a New Orleans defense that has allowed the most yards per pass attempt and highest touchdown rate through the air, including the eighth-most yards per attempt to slot receivers, from where Shepard runs most of his routes.