Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams(-3.5)
Mon. 11/19, 8:15 p.m. ET
Four things you need to know before betting on Kansas City-Los Angeles:
1. A pair of elite NFL teams meet in Los Angeles on Monday night when the 9-1 Chiefs host the 9-1 Rams. While Kansas City has the slight edge in scoring on the year (35.3 to 33.5 points per game), Los Angeles has the offensive yardage advantage over the Chiefs (448.0 to 423.1). The biggest statistical difference between the teams is in the area of pass defense. While the average of 233.1 yards per game the Rams allow ranks 11th in the NFL, the Chiefs give up an average of 289.0 passing yards per game, which ranks 28th. In games between NFL teams that each allow an average of between 23 and 27 points per game, favorites coming off back-to-back games in which at least 50 total points were scored are 33-11-1 against the spread since the start of the 2009 season.
2. While it may seem tempting to take the points with a team that’s been as hot as Kansas City this season, road underdogs that are coming off eight or more wins over their past 10 games are 5-38 straight up and 9-34 against the spread since the start of the 2009 season when facing an opponent with a winning record. The average margin over the 43 contests has been an average of more than 13 points per game despite the fact that the average point spread in those games has been fewer than five points.
3. In Kansas City’s five 2018 road games (at L.A. Chargers, Pittsburgh, Denver, New England and Cleveland), the Chiefs’ defense has surrendered an average of 30.4 points and 458 total yards per game. Recent history suggests that the Rams stand a very good chance of emerging victorious if they surpass 30 points on Monday night, as Los Angeles is 17-3 straight up (12-6-2 against the spread) when scoring at least 28 points since the start of the 2016 season, while Kansas City is 4-5 straight up in that same time frame when allowing 28 or more.
4. Including playoff games, this marks the eighth time since the start of the 2001 season that a game will have a total close at more than 58 points—the final score has gone over the total in each of the past seven instances. Five of those games have taken place since the start of the 2012 calendar year, and each of those games had more than 64 total points with an average combined score of 71.4 points. There have been 10 games this season with a total of at least 49.5 that have been between teams that commit an average of 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, and all 10 games have gone over the total.
Side: Los Angeles Rams -3.5
Confidence Level: High (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)
Total: Over 63.5
Confidence Level: Very High