Fantasy Football: Week 12 Target and Snap Report

Looking at the trends behind the numbers that can help uncover fantasy value.

Author:
Mark Deming
Publish date:
Nov 19, 2019

Fantasy Football: Todd Gurley Week 12 — Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Two more weeks remain of regular season games in most season-long fantasy football formats. We advised you in Week 10 to treat each week like it’s your last week. Week 12 presents challenging bye weeks at several positions. This week you’ll find some household names along with some players you may have never heard of before.

The following players were the top players outside the quarterback position in Week 11. They are potential season-long starters or flex starters, trade targets and/or FAAB priorities:

Key: Snap % / Target % / Touch %

Colts RB Marlon Mack: 30.9 snap percentage / 0 target percentage / 66.7 touch percentage.

Redskins RB Derrius Guice: 29.4% / 10% / 40%

Ravens RB Mark Ingram: 45.8% / 12.1% / 48.5%

Texans RB Carlos Hyde: 34.4% / 4.8% / 42.9%

Ravens RB Gus Edwards: 40.3% / 0% / 27.6%

Ravens TE Mark Andrews: 34.7% / 16% / 16%

Colts RB Jonathan Williams: 45.6% / 3.2% / 45.2%

Bengals RB Joe Mixon: 58.7% / 8.1% / 43.2%

Chiefs RB LeSean McCoy: 39.7% / 22.9% / 40.7%

Rams RB Todd Gurley: 74.5% / 7.3% / 68.3%

Steelers RB Jaylen Samuels: 33.8% / 24% / 40%

Colts RB Nyheim Hines: 35.3% / 16.7% / 25%

Falcons WR Calvin Ridley: 80% / 15.4% / 15.4%

Jets RB Le’Veon Bell: 54.9% / 5.1% / 51.3%

Jaguars WR D.J. Chark: 93.7% / 25.4% / 13.6%

Cowboys WR Randall Cobb: 62.2% / 15.2% / 8.7%

Bills WR John Brown: 98.6% / 19.7% / 12.7%

Lions RB Bo Scarbrough: 49.2% / 0% / 43.8%

Jets WR Jamison Crowder: 57.7% / 19.5% / 12.2%

Dolphins WR Jakeem Grant: 43.5% / 10% / 13.3%

Saints WR Michael Thomas: 81.4% / 19.3% / 14%

Bears RB Tarik Cohen: 59.2% / 13.3% / 31.3%

Vikings WR Stefon Diggs: 98.4% / 8.1% / 8.1%

Chargers RB Austin Ekeler: 57.5% / 26.1% / 28.3%

Saints RB Alvin Kamara: 61.4% / 23.3% / 53.3%

Jets TE Ryan Griffin: 84.5% / 8.3% / 8.3%

Lions WR Marvin Jones: 87.7% / 8.8% / 8.8%

Patriots WR Phillip Dorsett: 45.9% / 14.7% / 8.8%

Summary:

My first takeaway is the running back position continues to dominate the top 10 for three consecutive weeks. According to the data, running backs will most likely bring home division titles over the next two weeks. In Week 11, 11 of the top 13 players were running backs.

The injury to Marlon Mack, who sits atop this week’s list, is pivotal. As two other Colts RBs ( Jonathan Williams and Nyheim Hines) appear in the top 12, you should pay close attention to the backfield situation in Indianapolis. Hines and Williams are likely free agents in most leagues. With the Colts' massive offensive line really taking shape, an investment in a Colt RB is an intelligent play moving forward.

Mark Ingram is the perfect RB compliment to MVP candidate Lamar Jackson. Defenses are forced to shadow and spy on Jackson. This results in Ingram being rewarded with big holes. Ingram's physical running approach and hyper playing style make Baltimore a tough out in the playoffs. Funny fantasy Baltimore story: Bill Enright and I sat in the Palms Sportsbook at the Sports Illustrated Fantasy Football World Championship live event, prior to Week 1, eyeballing the Super Bowl odds. I told Bill I really liked Baltimore at 45-1. Bill was also intrigued. When we went back at halftime of Week 1, Baltimore was at 30-1. At the end of the Week 1 beatdown of the Dolphins, they were 25-1. The Ravens are currently 9-2 to win the Super Bowl. Continuing with the Baltimore theme of Week 11, you’ll find fellow teammates Gus Edwards and Mark Andrews in the top six. Get some Ravens on your fantasy team if possible.

Has any player ever got as much fantasy love without doing much as Derrius Guice? Well the legend was unleashed in Week 11 and Guice made one huge play. Football is all about the big play and Guice is that guy. He and his ability to catch the ball (which will be needed since the Redskins are almost always trailing) could provide him the perfect canvas to excel.

We advocated for Joe Mixon for the last few weeks in the snap column due to the opportunities he was getting. The Bengals are going to ride Mixon, who relishes the workhorse role. Mixon only goes one speed, he is 100 or nothing. If he stays healthy, Mixon will be a pivotal fantasy RB, even in the Bengals' struggling offense.

Pay close attention to the Chiefs RB situation this week. Don't be lazy and ignore it just because it's their bye week. A prominent Chiefs RB could be on your waiver wire given the health of both Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy.

Take a look at Todd Gurley’s 68.3 touch percentage. Gurley looked more spry and powerful than in previous weeks. If you recall the preseason, the Rams' plan was to play Gurley conservatively to keep him fresh for the final stages of the season. Perhaps 20-plus touches per game should be expected down the stretch.

Wide receivers usually take a year to learn the system and apply their natural abilities once they understand the play book and pace of play in the NFL. D.J. Chark is a beast in year two. He makes spectacular plays every single week. Chark is a player who was not on my radar heading into the season. I'll be taking him ahead of the curve next year.

Speaking of spry receivers, somehow Randall Cobb found the fountain of youth and is looking like the once dominant and dependable fantasy WR. Cobb is showing the ability to beat defenders with his athleticism and seems more comfortable in the Cowboy offense.

The Lions' Bo Scarbrough looked the part of the big physical back that head coach Matt Patricia seeks. If you like physical runners, take a chance on Scarbrough.

Tarik Cohen had his best fantasy outing in Week 10. He followed that up in Week 11 with a season-high 18.4 fantasy points. It’s a debacle in Chicago right now, but if you watch carefully, Cohen is starting to get dialed in. He seems due for a productive finish if you study his previous numbers.

Quick Hitters:

Jamison Crowder has 20-plus fantasy points in three straight games.
Jakeem Grant looked like a physical freak in his Week 11 performance.
Austin Ekeler has been on the list four straight weeks.
Alvin Kamaras 53.3 touch percentage sure seems like the Saints are going to ride him through the home stretch.
Ryan Griffin's Week 11 stat line: five receptions for 109 yards and a touchdown is the week's hidden gem.
Lions QB Jeff Driskel really likes Marvin Jones.