2024 NFL Mock Draft: Albert Breer Predicts the First Round

Our latest intel has at least five quarterbacks coming off the board, along with several receivers and offensive linemen among the 32 picks.

Let me start here—I know there will be trades in the 2024 NFL draft.

There might be one for a quarterback early, with perhaps the Minnesota Vikings moving up. The middle of the round could see the Indianapolis Colts or Jacksonville Jaguars getting aggressive for offensive skill players. The back half of the first round will likely feature some jockeying for the top tackles, as the seven who are projected as likely first-rounders come off the board.

But for this exercise, I’m going to stay away from trades. When I looked at my top 11, I saw the likelihood that the Vikings might let the quarterback position come to them, rather than using their second first-round pick to make a big move up. And after that, it became easier just to leave everyone where they’re slotted.

So my apologies for that. Hopefully, I can make up for it with this year’s one-and-only mock from me. As always, come for the picks, but stay for the information in the blurbs, where I think you’ll learn a thing or two as to where each club is at with the season three months away …

1. Chicago Bears | Caleb Williams, QB, USC

Williams has been the presumptive No. 1 pick for a while and the Bears have treated him as such.

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The Bears were smart about how they attacked this pick, getting way ahead on Williams. They had scouts ask USC, Oklahoma and Washington, D.C., guys about him at all-star games. They siphoned information from ex-USC assistant Kliff Kingsbury during an offensive coordinator interview. They had dinner with Williams’s team at the NFL scouting combine, spent extra time with him at his pro day, and separated him from the pack during his 30 visit. This pick has been determined for a while now.

2. Washington Commanders | Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

This seems like another wire-to-wire deal. Early signs—the hire of Kingsbury, the signing of Marcus Mariota and the trade of Sam Howell— pointed to Daniels. The 30 visit with Michael Penix Jr., Daniels, Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy might’ve thrown some folks off, but even at that one, I’ve heard he got a little more facetime than the 22 players who were there for it. With Daniels’s playstyle and experience (55 college starts), Washington should be able to get him up to speed quickly, and give the Commanders the kind of threat at quarterback that keeps defensive coaches like Dan Quinn awake at night. 

3. New England Patriots | Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

I do think there was some debate about trading this pick, and some disagreement, and the Patriots having to work through that is new because the franchise doesn’t function as an autocracy in player acquisition anymore. In the end, Maye is the pick because New England needs a guy with a high ceiling for the next 10 years, rather than a more palatable answer for the next two. The challenge will be exhibiting patience as Maye develops, but the talent is very clearly there.

4. Arizona Cardinals | Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State 

It’s been a long road here for the NFL and Harrison, similar to Williams, where Harrison first showed the talent to go this high early in the fall of 2022. GM Monti Ossenfort is going to gather offers while he’s on the clock tonight. My guess is the chance to fill another premium position, like he did last year with Harrison’s old Buckeyes teammate Paris Johnson, is too much to pass on.

5. Los Angeles Chargers | JC Latham, OT, Alabama

I struggled big-time with this one. Everything in my gut said L.A. plays it safe and takes Notre Dame’s Joe Alt. But I’ve kept hearing over the past week that the Chargers see Latham at the same level as Alt, and how adding Latham (the superior run blocker) would fit Jim Harbaugh better and be a bit cleaner, in that he’s a right tackle and his selection would allow the team to leave left tackle Rashawn Slater in place. So Latham it is.

6. New York Giants | Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

Call this a hunch. The Giants just went through a tumultuous year. Malik Nabers is a great prospect, but has a reputation for being a little difficult to coach. Odunze, on the other hand, has A-plus character in the same way as his old teammate Trent McDuffie, and projects as a Davante Adams-type of receiver. So do the Giants take a swing on the hard-to-handle LSU receiver (they have some experience with that) or move down? I’m guessing the latter, and it may wind up being as part of a trade down, too.

7. Tennessee Titans | Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame 

Tennessee’s tempted by Nabers, but ultimately chooses the more sensible route, taking the left tackle. The Titans are another team that’s said to be hot on Latham, so if there aren’t trades at Nos. 5 and 7, I’d bet Alt and Latham—in one order or the other—wind up in those two spots.

8. Atlanta Falcons | Dallas Turner, OLB, Alabama 

Turner addresses a need for the Falcons and could be the first defender off the board in an offense-heavy draft.

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This pick has been so out there that I almost don’t believe it’ll happen. But it was that way last year with Bijan Robinson and Atlanta, so I’ll roll with this one. I think Texas’s Byron Murphy II would be a consideration, but Turner fills the more immediate need. That said, I do think Nabers would be a possibility in this scenario.

9. Chicago Bears | Malik Nabers, WR, LSU 

Nabers is 100% the kind of receiver Ryan Poles loves, and Chicago has a receiver room with top-shelf pros in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, to help absorb a bigger personality. I do think Turner and Murphy would be in play if they're available at 9, as would a couple of the tackles. But the opportunity to build aggressively around Williams such as the Chiefs did with a younger Patrick Mahomes, when Poles was in Kansas City, is too much to pass up.

10. New York Jets | Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State 

I know how many people are all over Brock Bowers in this spot. I’m just not. I think Odunze will tempt GM Joe Douglas here. But having two 33-year-old tackles is walking a tightrope with a quarterback coming off a torn Achilles. And the Penn State All-American gives them a safety net. Taliese Fuaga is enticing, too, in that he could play guard. But Fashanu’s high-end potential to be a long-term left tackle is too tempting, and the need is too great not to address here, especially with the Jets lacking a second-rounder. New York can find a solid skill guy in the third round in this draft.

11. Minnesota Vikings | J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

Failing to land Maye, the Vikings call everyone’s bluff, and wind up with the draft’s fourth quarterback eight picks after the first run on the position concluded. I wouldn’t rule out a short move up the board just to protect against Denver leapfrogging them. Or even, say, packaging Nos. 11 and 23 to get Nos. 6 and 47 from the Giants. But if this happens? What a huge win it’d be for the Vikings, with the extra first-rounder acquired to engineer a trade up still intact.

12. Denver Broncos: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

Denver may be in the market for a quarterback, but Bowers would give Sean Payton a matchup tight end talent right away.

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I think Denver has flirted with going up for McCarthy or swallowing hard and drafting Bo Nix here. Being without a second-round pick certainly complicates the situation. But Bowers is a good get for Sean Payton, who has always thrived with matchup tight ends such as Jimmy Graham and Jeremy Shockey. I also wouldn’t rule out a tackle here if the right one falls who could take the place of Garett Bolles (whom the Broncos tried to trade him a couple of times last year) at left tackle.

13. Las Vegas Raiders | Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington 

The Raiders can get by for a year with Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell and a solid group of offensive coaches managing the situation. But after what just happened in Las Vegas, it stands to reason that Antonio Pierce might push GM Tom Telesco not to wait and draft their quarterback of the future. And Penix has a lot of fans in the Raiders building.

14. New Orleans Saints | Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State 

It sounds like the Saints are focused on getting the tackle position right here (with addressing corner as a likely backup plan), and Fuaga’s a clean prospect who can play inside or out. He could slot in as a guard to start if need be, and eventually displace one of the team’s incumbent tackles: Trevor Penning or Ryan Ramczyk.

15. Indianapolis Colts | Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo 

My sense is the Colts will try to trade up for one of the top three receivers or Bowers first, then perhaps settle on a defensive back. To that end, I initially had Alabama’s Terrion Arnold here. But a friend of Chris Ballard’s reminded me of how important traits are to the GM, and Arnold’s testing numbers were just so-so. So slot Mitchell in here, as the team looks to finally take care of a position that’s been unstable for a lot of years.

16. Seattle Seahawks | Jared Verse, DE, Florida State 

Verse is reminiscent of former Ravens star Terrell Suggs, and a clear fit for Mike Macdonald's scheme.

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This could be Penix—if he slides down past the Raiders—with ex-Washington OC Ryan Grubb now working for Seattle’s big-league team. If that’s not on the table, I’d look for an interior offensive lineman, or a defensive piece fitting Mike Macdonald’s Ravens-style scheme. Iowa’s do-everything DB Cooper DeJean would be one logical pick. Verse, who has a Terrell Suggs-type playing style, would be another.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars | Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama 

The Jags have done all the work on the top skill players, but in this spot, with Bowers and the top three receivers gone, Arnold’s too good to pass on. A Nick Saban favorite, this is a guy picked right in the range he should be, and fills one of Jacksonville’s most pressing needs.

18. Cincinnati Bengals | Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas

Too easy. The need’s there, with D.J. Reader gone, and Sheldon Rankins as a stopgap. And looking at the tackles and receivers available here, landing Murphy stands up as a value play that also fills an existing hole on the roster.

19. Los Angeles Rams | Laiatu Latu, OLB, UCLA 

Nix’s name has come up here, and I like the idea of a succession plan in place at the position. But the needs on defense are stark, so I’d imagine getting a top-end pass rusher will be a priority. With Aaron Donald gone, Illinois 3-technique Jer’Zhan “Johnny” Newton would be a logical pick, but Latu has the higher ceiling. While his neck issue has him off some draft boards, Latu’s tape, according to most evaluators, is the best of any edge rusher in the class.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers | Graham Barton, C/G, Duke 

The Steelers have done a lot of work on receivers and offensive linemen, and they’ve always been able to find receivers later in the draft. I think their preference would be to find a tackle they really like, but Barton’s a good option if that guy isn’t there. He’s a premier interior guy who offers position flexibility and a mean streak.

21. Miami Dolphins | Troy Fautanu, OT/OG, Washington

I’ve heard Xavier Worthy here, and that’d be exciting. But they need Fautanu (even though he’s been flagged for a knee issue that could be a problem later in his career), who is a natural as a versatile, high-character player who should acclimate quickly to the pros.

22. Philadelphia Eagles | Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia 

Mims checks the box for the Eagles–Georgia connection and would give Philadelphia a steady run blocker.

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

I initially had Tyler Guyton here, but GM Howie Roseman’s Georgia “thing,” plus Mims standing out as a stronger run blocker, prompted me to flip my choice. I actually think the Eagles could get aggressive and move up for a higher-end tackle such as Fuaga. If it’s not a tackle, I’d say corner would be the best position to address in this spot.

23. Minnesota Vikings | Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson 

With quarterback addressed at 11, I’d expect Minnesota to go in hard on defense for the remainder of the draft, and DC Brian Flores covets top-end cover corners. If Wiggins can put on a little weight, and grow up a little, the talent is certainly there.

24. Dallas Cowboys | Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

A premier pass-protecting talent who’s still ascending and needs to improve in the run game. But Dallas can take him and lean on its ability to develop linemen, and the culture it’s built in that room with Zack Martin, Tyler Smith and Terence Steele to help Guyton get his footing as a pro.

25. Green Bay Packers | Jer’Zhan “Johnny” Newton, DT, Illinois

If he’s recovered from a foot fracture, Newton will give Packer fans a lot to be excited about as an interior pressure player. Newton would be a nice complement to Rashan Gary along the Packers’ defensive front.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Chop Robinson, DE/OLB, Penn State 

The Buccaneers have needs at both edge and at corner, and it just so happens that a super athletic pass rusher is sitting there for them at the end of the first round to throw in the group with Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Yaya Diaby.

27. Arizona Cardinals | Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

McKinstry’s extremely talented but is another player who needs to mature and be consistent. Getting to go head-to-head with Harrison in practice every day probably wouldn’t hurt in helping McKinstry to get there in the weeks and months to come.

28. Buffalo Bills | Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU 

Thomas is an incredible athlete, and was off the charts his last year, catching 68 passes for 1,177 yards and 17 touchdowns. But I think two things result in a little slide. One, his shoulders have been flagged by team doctors, and he may need surgery on the left one after his rookie year. Two, he’s simply pushed down a bit by the run on the tackles I’m projecting.

29. Detroit Lions | Darius Robinson, DE/DT, Missouri

The Lions have explored trading up, maybe for a corner. And maybe for an edge to play opposite of Aidan Hutchinson. In any case, the tough, rugged Robinson would be a really nice fit for what coach Dan Campbell and GM Brad Holmes have built in Detroit.

30. Baltimore Ravens | Cooper DeJean, DB, Iowa 

DeJean would provide Baltimore with another versatile piece on defense alongside Kyle Hamilton.

George Walker IV / Tennessean.com / USA

As we said earlier, DeJean is a tremendous fit for the Baltimore scheme. Corner is on the radar for the Ravens, too, with McKinstry a consideration, as would a pass rusher (Robinson?) or receiver (one of the Texas guys?). There’s also a bit of a question on whether having DeJean and Kyle Hamilton might be redundant. Personally, I think Baltimore would be dangerous with both.

31. San Francisco 49ers | Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona 

Trent Williams isn’t getting any younger. So getting a young, talented tackle in the pipeline would be nice, with corner and pass rusher other considerations, as would be a receiver if the team could find someone to pay the freight to get Brandon Aiyuk (which probably became a little less likely after Amon-Ra St. Brown broke the bank with a four-year, $120 million extension).

32. Kansas City Chiefs | Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas 

I’m not sure Worthy will be available here. But if he is, and with Rashee Rice facing potential league discipline, I’d imagine it’d be tough for the Chiefs to pass on him, even with a crying need for a tackle (in this scenario, Andy Reid could try and get fellow BYU Cougar Kingsley Suamataia in the second round).