Bengal Bets: Top Picks For Cincinnati's Christmas Eve Clash Against New England

Cincinnati is the hottest betting team in the NFL.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Publish date:
Dec 22, 2022 11:49 AM EST

In this story:

CINCINNATI — It's time for a holiday edition of Bengal Bets.

Readers are feeling cheery after a clean sweep last week in the Tampa Bay contest. Cincinnati stormed back to cover the 3.5-point spread and powered 57 total points to go over 44.5.

Sprinkle in an over on Tom Brady's completions, and it was a 3-0 week. Now Cincinnati searches for its first win in New England since 1986 as we go for another winning slate.

Season Record: 20-19 (-1.97 units)

Bengals -3 (-110)

Dec 11, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) celebrates a touchdown catch in the second quarter during a Week 14 NFL game against the Cleveland Browns at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports — Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports

Cincinnati is making our first pick every week very easy. The Bengals are the best team against the spread this season (11-3) and continue to find ways to win games.

They've covered six-straight games, which is Cincinnati's longest cover streak since 1993. Its longest single-season cover streak in the Super Bowl era is seven straight, set in 1970.

Joe Burrow and this Bengals' defense keep Cincinnati in every game. The quarterback's calm demeanor mixes well with the balance on the other side. Anyway you slice it—this game sets up well for a complete Cincinnati team.

Burrow is 17-7 ATS away from home, the most profitable QB ATS since 2020
Burrow has excelled in cold temperatures: 50 degrees or less (10-2 SU, 11-1 ATS), 40 degrees or less (5-0 SU/ATS)
Teams after facing the Raiders are 16-31 ATS since 2020, the worst for any previous opponent in the NFL over that span
New England is 0-4 outright and ATS against teams with winning records this season.
New England is 3-4 ATS as a home underdog since Tom Brady left, including 0-2 ATS this season.

The Patriots of old are gone offensively. Matt Patricia's been a disaster as the play-caller this season and it's killing Mac Jones's growth. He ranks 30th in passing TDs (7), and 32nd in QBR (30.7).

The offense overall is 29th in EPA/play since Week 8.

They won't score over 21 points in this game against a Bengals defense that may get multiple secondary pieces back this week. New England's defense (second in EPA/play since Week 8) keeps this relatively close, but Cincinnati never sweats.

O41.5 (-110 SI Sportsbook)

Dec 4, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; The Cincinnati Bengals defense celebrates a turnover in the fourth quarter of a Week 13 NFL game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports — © Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports

Back-to-back weeks betting on the Bengals and plenty of points. The game will be played in a mid-20s temperature on Sunday, but under sunny skies with little wind.

Both of these teams have trended towards the under this season, with the Bengals at 9-5 and the Pats at 8-6 thus far.

Cincinnati has one of the most consistent offenses in the NFL (top 10 in passing and rushing DVOA). I'm banking on that winning out against an equally good Patriots defense.

Bill Belichick famously takes away top weapons well and last week was no different. New England held Davante Adams to 4 catches for 28 yards and 1 first down. Alas, Cincinnati can just feed Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd if Ja'Marr Chase gets that treatment.

New England's defense has been great but very inconsistent based on opponents played week to week. They rank 25th in Football Outsiders' performance variance, with plenty of peaks and valleys this season.

Offensively, New England is terrible, but they should only need to crack 17-20 points in this game to go over. They've done that in five of their past seven games. We get just enough offense here to creep past the over on a relatively mild weather day.

Joe Burrow Under 259.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Dec 11, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) runs the ball while under pressure during the second quarter against the Cleveland Browns at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports — Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

New England is arguably the best passing defense Cincinnati will face in 2022.

The Patriots give up an average of 202 passing yards per contest and have not allowed an opposing quarterback to throw for 246-plus yards in their last three games.

The Bengals rank sixth in the league in passing yards per outing (262.1), but against Top-15 pass defenses this season (six games), Burrow has surpassed 259 passing yards just once. That outing came in the 27-12 win over New York, earning their first win of the season.

Overall, He has hit 260 passing yards in 8-of-14 games this season but has hit his week-to-week line just six times. He's only gone over once since Week 7. Cincinnati can run the ball much better with where they are as an offense, and the balance is hurting passing overs.

Add in the fact that New England has allowed just three 260-plus-yard passing outings this season, and this number gets even more enticing.

Cincinnati plays New England on Christmas Eve. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on CBS. You can watch via fuboTV—start your free trial here.

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