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How Broncos’ Win Over Raiders on ‘TNF’ Impacts NFL Playoff Picture
There’s a new No. 1 seed in the AFC ... for now.
In perhaps the ugliest game of the 2025 NFL season, the Broncos defeated the Raiders 10–7 to kick off Week 10 on Thursday Night Football. Denver and Las Vegas combined for more penalties (22) than first downs (20), and the game’s leading receiver was veteran Tyler Lockett, who had five catches for 44 yards.
Yikes. But all wins count the same in the National Football League, and no team has more wins than Sean Payton’s Broncos, who improved to 8–2 with the prime-time victory.
Sitting atop the AFC West, the Broncos entered the night as the No. 3 seed in the AFC. They jumped up to the No. 1 seed with the win, leapfrogging the 7–2 Colts and 7–2 Patriots, and now have a 92% chance to make the playoffs, according to NFL.com.
As for Ashton Jeanty and the Raiders? Well, they can pretty much kiss their playoff hopes goodbye. With less than a 1% chance to make the postseason, Las Vegas is better off turning its attention to the 2026 draft in April.
Following the Broncos’ win Thursday night, here's how the NFL playoff picture looks heading into the weekend (Note: all playoff odds are provided by NFL.com):
AFC Playoff Picture
SEED | TEAM | PLAYOFF % |
|---|---|---|
1 | Broncos (8–2) | 92% |
2 | Colts (7–2) | 91% |
3 | Patriots (7–2) | 90% |
4 | Steelers (5–3) | 60% |
5 | Bills (6–2) | 95% |
6 | Chargers (6–3) | 69% |
7 | Jaguars (5–3) | 56% |
--- | --- | --- |
8 | Chiefs (5–4) | 74% |
9 | Texans (3–5) | 20% |
10 | Ravens (3–5) | 53% |
11 | Bengals (3–6) | 3% |
12 | Browns (2–6) | 2% |
13 | Raiders (2–6) | 1% |
14 | Dolphins (2–7) | 1% |
15 | Jets (1–7) | 1% |
16 | Titans (1–8) | 1% |
NFC Playoff Picture
SEED | TEAM | PLAYOFF % |
|---|---|---|
1 | Eagles (6–2) | 97% |
2 | Buccaneers (6–2) | 91% |
3 | Seahawks (6–2) | 85% |
4 | Packers (5–2–1) | 81% |
5 | Rams (6–2) | 91% |
6 | 49ers (6–3) | 76% |
7 | Lions (5–3) | 77% |
--- | --- | --- |
8 | Bears (5–3) | 28% |
9 | Panthers (5–4) | 26% |
10 | Vikings (4–4) | 23% |
11 | Cowboys (3–5–1) | 5% |
12 | Cardinals (3–5) | 5% |
13 | Falcons (3–5) | 12% |
14 | Commanders (3–6) | 4% |
15 | Giants (2–7) | 1% |
16 | Saints (1–8) | 1% |
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Tom Dierberger is a staff writer and editor on the Breaking and Trending News team at Sports Illustrated. He joined SI in November 2023 after stints at FOX Sports, Bally Sports and NBC Sports. Dierberger has a bachelor's in communication from St. John's University. In his spare time, he can be seen throwing out his arm while playing fetch with his dog, Walter B. Boy.