The Bills’ Unconvincing Win Over Dolphins Proves AFC Is Still Up for Grabs

Buffalo may still be in pole position to win the conference, but Thursday’s victory over a floundering Miami team showed that all of the contenders have a ways to go.

The Bills beat the Dolphins 31–21 Thursday night in Buffalo, but were under threat for most of the game. / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

When Josh Allen found Elijah Moore for a 30-yard gain on second-and-16 to essentially seal Thursday night’s 31–21 victory for the Bills over the Dolphins, there was relief in the stadium and on the field in Buffalo. 

A feeling of escape. 

For the Bills, a win is exactly that. It’s a win. They’re 3–0 and alone atop the AFC, with only the Colts, Chargers and Joe Burrow–less Bengals also among the ranks of the conference’s unbeatens. If someone had to pick a team as the most likely representative of the AFC in Super Bowl LX, it would be Buffalo based on a soft schedule, an MVP quarterback and a hot start in the standings. 

However, all isn’t well. 

In Week 1, the Bills allowed 40 points, 8.6 yards per play and four rushes of at least 30 yards to the Ravens in a wild 41–40, come-from-behind victory. It was the Game of the Year, even without having seen the majority of the final 15 weeks, with Josh Allen throwing for 254 yards in the final quarter.

But the defensive issues were evident on that night. After stymieing the Jets at MetLife Stadium last week in a 30–10 victory in which New York didn’t have a third-down conversion, the problems showed up again Thursday night.

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Despite looking like the NFL’s worst team through two weeks and being on the road, on a short week, Miami held its own. The Dolphins were 10-of-15 on third down and ran for 5.2 yards per carry, led by De’Von Achane’s 62 yards on 12 carries. Buffalo was rarely challenged by Tua Tagovailoa in pass coverage, with the quarterback treating the line of scrimmage like an aerial forcefield. Of his 22 completions, Tagovailoa threw just three more than 10 yards in the air.

Still, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle consistently beat man coverage when called upon, scoring two touchdowns with ease against Christian Benford and Tre’Davious White, respectively. If Tagovailoa had played better, they could have far exceeded their combined total of 10 catches for 88 yards. 

Yet, Buffalo has ample reason to smile. The Bills don’t have any meaningful long-term injuries, they should eventually get first-round corner Maxwell Hairston back from his summer knee injury, and they have the winless Saints on deck. 

The Bills defense in particular has struggled, allowing Thursday for the Dolphins play-makers to run into free space after the catch. / Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Looking around the AFC,  no team looks overwhelming. Perhaps the Chargers are the scariest, and they haven’t won a playoff game since the 2018 season, when Philip Rivers was still under center. Los Angeles has convincing wins over the Chiefs and Raiders, but is also without star left tackle Rashawn Slater for the year due to a torn patellar tendon, and the rest of the line is shaky, save for Joe Alt. 

In Indianapolis, the Colts have scored 62 points and have yet to punt, but Daniel Jones has a long way to go before anybody believes he’s leading a team to ultimate glory. Indianapolis has also beaten the Dolphins and needed a game-extending leverage penalty on the Broncos to win last Sunday. Otherwise, they’d be another 1–1 team.

As for the Ravens, they’ve done little to excite. Yes, the stats are excellent. Lamar Jackson has thrown for a league-high six touchdowns and Derrick Henry has 192 rushing yards, good for third-most entering Week 3. But Baltimore’s defense was a mess against Buffalo, surrendering 497 yards. And in last week’s home opener against the listless Browns, the Ravens managed just 242 yards on 4.6 yards per play, despite winning 41–10 with a 21-point explosion in the fourth quarter. 

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Finally, there are the Chiefs. Kansas City is 0–2 for the first time since 2014 and has looked mediocre offensively, ranking 17th. Without Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy, Patrick Mahomes has been left to do everything, evidenced by 123 rushing yards, ranking 16th entering this week. While Worthy could be back Sunday and Rice is slated to return from his suspension in Week 7, the Chiefs might already be buried with games against the Giants, Ravens, Jaguars and Lions before then. For a team that’s been to five of the last six Super Bowls, Kansas City is in peril. 

Right now, the Bills are the team in the AFC’s pole position. They have a great quarterback, an electric backfield and a terrific offensive line. But Buffalo also has a defense that has ranged from very good (vs. Jets) to downright atrocious (vs. Ravens) and somewhere in between, as we saw Thursday night. 

It’s a long road to February and the ultimate destination in Santa Clara, Calif. Perhaps the Bills will get there, ending a 32-year Super Bowl drought. 

But right now, no contender in the AFC can claim top-dog status with any certainty. It’s open to all comers, with the only clarity being that we won’t have any for weeks, and maybe months.

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