2025 Fantasy Baseball: Grayson Rodriguez Profile, Preview, Predictions

Greatness lies in the right arm of Grayson Rodrguez, but he has yet to reach his potential in the majors. The Orioles moved in the left field wall in the offseason, leading to the fantasy market not fighting for Baltimore's starting pitchers in the early draft season.

Grayson Rodriguez's 3Ks in the 6th. pic.twitter.com/UXxnKPdicr
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 15, 2024

SP – Grayson Rodriguez, BAL (ADP – 105.2)

2025 Grayson Rodriguez Pitching Stats Profile | Shawn Childs

Rodriguez underperformed expectations with the Orioles over his first two seasons based on his dominance in the minors (29-9 with a 2.40 ERA, 0.966 WHIP, and 475 strikeouts over 333.1 innings).

He pitched his way back to the minors in 2023 after getting blasted over five starts in May (26 runs, 45 baserunners, and 11 home runs over 21.0 innings with 22 strikeouts). After success over eight outings at AAA (4-0 with a 1.96 ERA and 56 strikeouts over 41.1 innings), Grayson pitched like an ace over 12 starts with Baltimore (5-2 with a 2.26 ERA, 1.047 WHIP, and 69 strikeouts over 71.2 innings).

Unfortunately, his 2024 season didn’t build off his newfound success in the majors. He allowed two runs or fewer in five of his first six starts to open the year, with one poor showing (seven runs, 12 baserunners, and one home run over 4.1 innings). The Orioles placed him on the injured list in early May due to a right shoulder issue. Grayson had 10 good starts over his final 14 appearances, but his battle with home runs (11 over 82.2 innings) and two disaster showings (13 runs, 22 baserunners, and four home runs over 10.0 innings) led to weaker results in ERA (3.92). He did win nine games over this span with help in WHIP (1.173) and strikeouts (93). Grayson missed the final two months with a lat injury.

Right-handed batters (.280 with nine home runs over 229 at-bats) were a problem. He also struggled on the road (4.42 ERA and 1.316 WHIP). The Orioles moved in the left field fence in some areas over the winter, inviting more home runs to righties.

His average fastball (96.3) was down more than one mph from his rookie season. Grayson threw four pitches – four-seamer (.287 BAA), changeup (.161 BAA), slider (.250 BAA), and curveball (.255 BAA). Righties roughed up his four-seamer (.359 BAA), a pitch that was much more effective against left-handed batters (.202 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Twice over the past two seasons, Grayson missed a significant time with a lat injury, and his shoulder injury last year can’t be dismissed as a factor in his current fantasy value. He threw more strikes in 2024, highlighted by his elite first-pitch strike rate (67.7). When adding his draft pedigree, minor league resume, and command ratio from last season, Grayson is on the doorstep of becoming a foundation ace. It all starts with better location of his fastball to righties. I can’t put him in the slam dunk column, but I will be watching his ADP closely in 2025. With 32 starts, 15 wins, a sub-3.00 ERA, and 225+ strikeouts is well within reach.

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Top 5 First Basemen | First Basemen 6-10 | First Basemen 11-15

Top 5 Second Basemen | Second Basemen 6-10 | Second Basemen 11-15

Top 5 Shortstops | Shortstops 6-10 | Shortstops 11-15

Top 5 Third Basemen | Third Basemen 6-10 | Third Basemen 11-15