2025 Fantasy Baseball: Max Fried Profile, Preview, Predictions
The Yankees backed up the Brinks truck in the offseason to sign Max Fried to massive deal despite having a hint of a lingering left elbow issue. When on the mound, he wins games and pitches at a high level.
Max Fried's 2Ks in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/aUKk2MEWd3
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 16, 2024
SP – Max Fried, NYY (ADP – 101.0)
After pitching well in April (2-0 with a 0.45 ERA, 0.900 WHIP, .203 BAA, and 18 strikeouts over 20.0 innings) in 2023, Fried struggled in his first start in May (five runs, 10 baserunners, and two home runs over 6.0 innings). A forearm strain led to three months on the injured list. His arm held value over his final nine starts (2.79 ERA and 55 strikeouts over 51.2 innings), but he battled a blister on his pitching hand in late September. Fried struggled in his only playoff appearance (three runs and seven baserunners over 4.0 innings).
The threat of his forearm issues carrying over into 2024 was a reasonable outcome after two disaster outings (10 runs, 16 baserunners, and one home run over five innings) to open the year. Fried went 7-3 over his next 14 starts with a 2.08 ERA, 0.978 WHIP, and 78 strikeouts over 91.0 innings. Two games (six runs, 20 baserunners, and three home runs over 12.0 innings) into July, he landed on the injured list for three weeks with another forearm issue. His arm was serviceable over his final 11 outings (3.53 ERA, 1.176 WHIP, and 71 strikeouts over 66.1 innings).
Left-handed batters hit .321 against him with five home runs over 140 at-bats. Fried tends to allow a low hard-hit rate (34.5) and exit velocity (86.3 mph). Over the past two years, he developed into a high-volume groundball pitcher (58.8%), leading to a low fly-ball rate (23.2).
His average fastball (93.9) aligned with his previous two seasons while relying on three secondary pitches (curveball – .159 BAA, slider – .208 BAA, and changeup – .198 BAA). Fried added a low-volume cutter (.313 BAA). Left-handed batters drilled his four-seamer (.484 BAA) and sinker (.372 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: The Yankees locked Fried up for $218 million over eight years in early December. He has been a winning pitcher over the past seven seasons (71-31 with a 3.06 ERA, 1.141 WHIP, and 797 strikeouts over 824.2 innings). His left arm checks many winning boxes, making it easy to dismiss his two forearm issues over the past two seasons. I suspect a UCL tear in his left elbow will emerge in the near future. His first sign of demise will be a rise in home runs and a drop in strikeouts. Based on this, the hints to avoid aren’t glowing on the surface of his profile.
RANKINGS
Top 5 Catchers | Catchers 6-10 | Catchers 11-15
Top 5 First Basemen | First Basemen 6-10 | First Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Second Basemen | Second Basemen 6-10 | Second Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Shortstops | Shortstops 6-10 | Shortstops 11-15
Top 5 Third Basemen | Third Basemen 6-10 | Third Basemen 11-15
With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.