2025 Fantasy Baseball: Michael Busch Profile, Preview, Predictions
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Michael Busch played well in his rookie season, but he did battle strikeouts at times. Chicago added Justin Turner to steal some playing time at 1B, 3B, and DH, creating some concern for the fantasy market with Busch's ceiling in at-bats.
Busch WHACKED 💥
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) April 14, 2024
Make that FOUR consecutive days with a home run for Michael Busch! pic.twitter.com/qpBXcrGo2L
1B – Michael Busch, CHC (ADP – 254.6)
The Los Angeles Dodgers drafted Busch 31st overall in the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over three seasons at North Carolina, he hit .282 with 169 runs, 32 home runs, 142 RBIs, and 14 stolen bases over 618 at-bats while taking walks (143) than striking out (101).
His first chance at starting at-bats in the minors wasn’t until 2021 at AA (.267/84/20/67/2 over 409 at-bats) due to no minor league baseball the previous year (COVID-19). LA gave him 834 at-bats of experience at AAA in 2022 and 2023, leading to a .293 batting average with 172 runs, 48 home runs, 169 RBIs, and seven steals. Over this span, his walk rate (13.2) was an edge. Busch had just over the league average strikeout rate (22.5). His average hit rate (1.869) and contact batting average (.395) graded well.
After a trade to the Cubs before the 2024 season, Busch made 135 starts for Chicago. His approach against left-handed pitching (eight walks and 25 strikeouts over 100 plate appearances) was reasonable, but he only had one home run and eight RBIs (.258 BAA). Busch struggled with his confidence at Wrigley Field (.211/28/8/25/1 over 232 at-bats).
His bat jumped out of the gate over his first 19 games (.328/11/6/15 over 64 at-bats). Pitchers got the best of him over his next 109 at-bats (.183/17/2/8/1) while striking out 49 times (38.3%). Busch was hitting .271 at the All-Star break thanks to better plate discipline (25.4% strikeout rate – .319 over 134 at-bats with 18 runs, four home runs, and 13 RBIs). Over his final 204 at-bats, he hit .216 with 27 runs, nine home runs, and 29 RBIs with 58 strikeouts (25.1%).
He checked the home run box in launch angle (17.1) with a mid-tier exit velocity (89.9 mph) and below-par hard-hit rate (39.9). His HR/FB rate (15.4) trailed his success at AA and AAA (over 23.0%). Busch had a balanced swing path in his rookie season,
Fantasy Outlook: His experience last year should lead to fewer strikeouts in 2025, and Busch posted a competitive walk rate (11.1). The Cubs signed Justin Turner for depth at first and third base, suggesting a platoon role for Busch. I could see some days off against lefties when his bat scuffles at the plate.
His next step is improving with runners on base (RBI rate – 14) and being more productive at home. His average hit rate (1.772) and contact batting average (.368) with Chicago support a higher batting average and a chance at 30 home runs if given 550 at-bats. I’ll set his floor at .260/80/25/85 with minimal stolen bases.
RANKINGS
Top 5 Catchers | Catchers 6-10 | Catchers 11-15
Top 5 First Basemen | First Basemen 6-10 | First Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Second Basemen | Second Basemen 6-10 | Second Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Shortstops | Shortstops 6-10 | Shortstops 11-15
Top 5 Third Basemen | Third Basemen 6-10 | Third Basemen 11-15
With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
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