2025 Fantasy Baseball: Randy Arozarena Profile, Preview, Predictions
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Over the past four seasons, Randy Arozarena has been one of the better-balanced hitters in baseball, leading to a high floor in home runs and stolen bases. His nosedive in batting average, paired with struggles with runners on base (10% RBI rate), lowers his ADP in 2025.
I don't think I have ever seen an at-bat like this one that Randy Arozarena had.
— Baseball (@mlbelites_) February 15, 2025
Stepped out of the box THREE times in a row and then hit a home run. Incredible. pic.twitter.com/6G6NGGDVYT
OF – Randy Arozarena, SEA (ADP – 138.5)
Despite posting his fourth consecutive 20/20 season, Arozarena was a shell of himself last year. I wrote 27 weekly recaps about the NFBC main event overall winner (Clark Olson) last season with him on the team, and I believe I only mentioned him once for a hot week. His RBI rate (10) was one of the worst in baseball, leading to only 42 RBIs in his 425 chances.
He hit .196 over the first three months of 2024, leading to 35 runs, 11 home runs, 28 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases over 281 at-bats. After some improvement over 69 at-bats (.275/10/4/9/6) in July, Tampa shipped him to the Mariners. Arozarena failed to make an impact over his final 54 games (.231 over 199 at-bats with 32 runs, five home runs, 23 RBIs, and four steals). His bat lost value against right-handed pitching (.214/52/13/41/15 over 398 at-bats).
His strikeout rate (28.5) was a five-year high while maintaining a favorable walk rate (11.7). He had a fade in his contact batting average (.316 – .354 in 2023) for the third consecutive season. Arozarena ranked 67th in exit velocity (90.4 mph) and 43rd in hard-hit rate (43.5), with both metrics almost matching his career averages. His fly-ball rate (41.0) is trending higher at the expense of his line drive rate (14.4 – 18.1 in his career). He posted the lowest HR/FB rate (12.7) in his time in the majors.
Fantasy Outlook: Arozarena slipped to 92nd in FPGscore (-0.98) for hitters due to his glaring weakness in batting average and RBIs. Over his previous three seasons, he finished 35th (3.26), 19th (6.08), and 32nd (2.82). His one positive in 2024 was the rise in his average hit rate (1.775), suggesting over 30 home runs if repeated over 550 at-bats.
The good outweighs the bad on his professional resume, making him a value this season. There is a good chance Arozarena hits one slot in the batting order from Julio Rodriguez, creating an upside opportunity in runs or RBIs. Let’s go with .265 with 85 runs, 25 home runs, 80 RBIs, and 25 stolen bases.
RANKINGS
Top 5 Catchers | Catchers 6-10 | Catchers 11-15
Top 5 First Basemen | First Basemen 6-10 | First Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Second Basemen | Second Basemen 6-10 | Second Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Shortstops | Shortstops 6-10 | Shortstops 11-15
Top 5 Third Basemen | Third Basemen 6-10 | Third Basemen 11-15
With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
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