2025 Fantasy Baseball: Bowden Francis Profile, Preview, Predictions

Toronto Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Bowden Francis | Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

Bowden Francis was an absolute beast down the stretch in 2024, helping fantasy teams climb the pitching mountain to league championships. His elite success is a small sample size, and what took him so long to develop into a viable major league arm?

Bowden Francis, Filth. pic.twitter.com/IVeVxJ9WDx

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 10, 2023

SP – Bowden Francis, TOR (ADP – 228.9)

2025 Bowden Francis Pitching Stat Profile | Shawn Childs

Before 2023, Francis had nothing to offer to fantasy teams or the Toronto Blue Jays. He went 33-37 over his first 121 games in the minors with a 4.66 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 534 strikeouts over 513.2 innings.

His arm progressed in 2023 in the minors over 30.0 innings (2.67 ERA, 1.167, seven walks, and 42 strikeouts), earning Francis a better opportunity with the Blue Jays. Over 20 appearances in relief with Toronto, he allowed seven runs, 30 baserunners, and 35 strikeouts over 36.1 innings.

He opened last season in the Blue Jays starting rotation, but Francis was a disaster over his first three appearances (14 runs, 21 baserunners, and four home runs over 10.2 innings with 15 strikeouts). After four shutout innings in relief with two strikeouts, he landed on the injured list with a forearm issue. Francis made four appearances in the minors (1.74 ERA, 0.774 WHIP, and 11 strikeouts over 10.1 innings) in May, leading to a move back to Toronto’s bullpen (11 runs, 32 base runners, and 17 strikeouts over 24.0 innings).

After a two-start spin drive in the minors (no runs, three baserunners, and 13 strikeouts over nine innings), Francis developed into a beast free-agent pickup in the fantasy market over his final 65.0 innings (5-3 with a 1.80 ERA, 0.600 WHIP, and 58 strikeouts).

His average fastball (93.1) wasn’t an edge in velocity. Francis's growth came from the addition of a split-finger fastball (.160 BAA) at the expense of his curveball (.250) and slider (.207 BAA). Batters struggled with his four-seamer (.170 BAA with 64 strikeouts). He has been a groundball pitcher (46.5%) over the past two seasons. Here’s his pitch mix and success over the final two months from Brooks Baseball:

2024 Bowden Francis Pitch MIx Final Two Months | Brooks Baseball

Fantasy Outlook: Forearm injuries can lead to elbow issues and potentially to TJ surgery. His meteoric rise late last season is a short sample size but one that brings back memories of Mike Scott’s breakthrough season in 1986 (306 over 275.1 innings – 137 strikeouts over 221.2 innings in 1985). His split-finger pitch, improved command, and ability to get swing-and-misses with league-average velocity on his fastball bodes well for success this year. Player to follow this spring as Francis may continue to his ride in 2025 if his arm is healthy.

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