2025 Fantasy Baseball: Carlos Rodon Profile, Preview, Predictions

Carlos Rodon has shown ace upside twice over the past four seasons, but home runs have been a problem in back-to-back years. His left arm underperformed expectations in 2024. Is he a fantasy tease, or will Rodon be in top form in 2025?

Carlos Rodón, K'ing the Side in the 1st.

He's already activated full Psychopath mode. pic.twitter.com/vkP4xaeKZ7
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 7, 2024

SP – Carlos Rodon, NYY (ADP – 123.4)

2025 Carlos Rodon Pitching Stats Profile | Shawn Childs

Rodon parlayed two great seasons in 2021 and 2022 (27-13 with a 2.67 ERA, 0.998 WHIP, and 422 strikeouts over 310.2 innings) into a six-year deal with the Yankees for $162 million.

In 2023, he started the year on the injured list with a back injury. After returning in early July, Rodon failed to find consistency over his 14 starts (6.85 ERA, 1.447 WHIP, and 15 home runs over 64.1 innings). His walk rate (3.9) was a significant issue, and he struggled with right-handed batters (.274 with 12 home runs over 208 innings).

Last season, Rodon gave New York 32 starts, but there were many down days on his journey. He went 9-2 over his first 14 contests with a 2.93 ERA, 1.050 WHIP, and 74 strikeouts over 80.0 innings. All his early gains were given away three games later (21 runs, 34 baserunners, and five home runs over 13.2 innings with 18 strikeouts). Rodon posted a 4.10 ERA, 1.234 WHIP, and 69 strikeouts over his following 52.2 innings. His arm rebounded in September (2.20 ERA, 1.081 WHIP, and 34 strikeouts over 28.2 innings) despite allowing six home runs.

Rodon gave up 28 of his 31 home runs to right-handed batters. His home splits (9-2 with a 3.11 ERA and 91 strikeouts over 81.0 innings) were much better than on the road (4.69 ERA, 1.340 WHIP, and 104 strikeouts over 94.0 innings).

His average fastball (95.5) aligned with his previous three seasons. Rodon threw fewer four-seamers (.274 BAA) due to his struggles with hard contact (14 doubles, three triples, and 25 home runs). He brought back his changeup (.198 BAA). He continues to throw a favorable slider (.203 BAA). Rodon created an edge with his two show-me pitches against lefties (curveball – .000 and cutter – .125 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Ultimately, Rodon can’t reach elite SP1 status without locating his fastball better in the strike zone. He brings value in strikeouts with reasonable command. His desire to elevate his pitches over the past two seasons led to a high fly-ball rate (49.4) and struggles with home runs. His coin flip is between an underachiever or a potential underlying injury. I don’t see enough light in his profile to reel me in 2025.

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