2025 Fantasy Baseball: Ezequiel Tovar Profile, Preview, Predictions

Ezequiel Tovar whiffed like a champ (200) in his second season full year with the Colorado Rockies. His volume of at-bats (655) helped his value in counting stats. Is his opportunity repeatable?

Two home runs in two innings for Ezequiel Tovar tonight. 💪 pic.twitter.com/zfGvBIHej0
— MLB (@MLB) August 28, 2024

SS – Ezequiel Tovar, COL (ADP – 127.4)

2025 Ezequiel Tovar Hitting Stats Profile | Shawn Childs

Colorado gave Tovar his AAA development year in the majors in 2023. His volume at-bats led to competitive stats in four categories (79/15/73/11), but he battled his approach all year (strikeout rate – 27.4 and walk rate – 4.1). As a result, his batting average (.253) was a liability. He struggled in April (.214 with 10 runs, no home runs, and eight RBIs) while helping fantasy teams with his combined stats in May, June, and August (.280 with 48 runs, 13 home runs, 46 RBIs, and seven stolen bases). Tovar didn’t hit a home run in September over 111 at-bats.

The Rockies moved Tovar to the top two spots of their lineup for 91.1% of his elite at-bats (655) last season, helping him beat the league average in runs (83) and RBIs (78). His average hit rate (1.744) and contact batting average (.387) reached a much more attractive level, but he has regression in his approach (strikeout rate – 28.8 and walk rate – 3.3).

Tovar had a tight range in runs (12 to 17), home runs (3 to 6), and RBIs (12 to 15) in every month last year while shining in batting average in May (.308/17/5/12/2 over 117 at-bats) and July (.307/16/6/15 over 101 at-bats). Over his best two months, he had five walks and 68 strikeouts.

His rise in power was helped by a much higher fly-ball rate (45.9 – 33.8 in 2023) and launch angle (18.9 –12.6 in 2023). He had a minimal change in his exit velocity (88.8 mph) while showing growth in his hard-hit rate (39.7).

Fantasy Outlook: Last year, Tovar finished 44th in FPGscore (1.83) for hitters, right next to Brice Turang, CJ Abrams, and Oneil Cruz. Tovar has a more attractive feel heading into 2025, but he only improved his ability to put the ball in the air. His high strikeout rate invites slumps, and Tovar didn’t gain that much by playing in Colorado (.277/44//13/42/2 over 325 at-bats).

Repeat ability in high-volume at-bats can be challenging at the level of the player pool, suggesting a regression in his overall stats unless his approach improves. Tovar should get stronger over the winter. A drop in his strikeout rate would lead to more balls in play and better production this year. His sprint speed (28.1) invites more stolen base attempts this year.

RANKINGS

Top 5 Catchers | Catchers 6-10 | Catchers 11-15

Top 5 First Basemen | First Basemen 6-10 | First Basemen 11-15

Top 5 Second Basemen | Second Basemen 6-10 | Second Basemen 11-15

Top 5 Shortstops | Shortstops 6-10 | Shortstops 11-15

Top 5 Third Basemen | Third Basemen 6-10 | Third Basemen 11-15