2025 Fantasy Baseball: Gavin Williams Profile, Preview, Predictions

Cleveland Guardians Starting Pitcher Gavin Williams | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

Gavin Williams brings elite talent and a high ceiling, but he must throw more strikes to develop into a trusted fantasy arm. In addition, Williams battled a right elbow issue in 2024.

Gavin Williams, 5th and 6th Ks. pic.twitter.com/pSiyhtbXFR

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 30, 2024

SP – Gavin Williams, CLE (ADP – 247.1)

2025 Gavin Williams Pitching Stats Profile | Shawn Childs

After a dominating season in 2021 at East Carolina (10-1 with a 1.88 ERA and 130 strikeouts over 81.1 innings), the Indians added Williams with the 23rd pick in the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft. He handled himself well in 2022 between High A and AA (1.96 ERA and 140 strikeouts over 115 innings).

Cleveland gave him another three starts at AA (one run over 14.1 innings with three walks and 20 strikeouts) in 2023. His command (4.1 walks per nine) regressed after his promotion to AAA, but Williams still had success (2.93 ERA and 61 strikeouts over 46.0 innings). He made his major league debut on June 21st (four runs, seven baserunners, and one home run over 5.2 innings). Over his next 15 starts, Williams had a 3.07 ERA, 1.258 WHIP, .220 BAA, and 77 strikeouts over 76.1 innings. His only poor showing came in late August (five runs, 10 baserunners, and one home run over 4.1 innings).

Williams developed an elbow injury last March, leading to two months on the injured list. He posted a 4.76 ERA, 1.471 WHIP, and two home runs over his 17.0 innings in the minors with 24 strikeouts. Over his 16 starts with the Guardians, he allowed two runs or fewer in eight games without any sign of consistency.

Right-handed batters hit .275 against him. His arm was a disaster at home (0-7 with a 6.55 ERA, 1.697 WHIP, and 42 strikeouts over 33.0 innings).  

Williams had plus velocity on his fastball (96.7 mph). He ditched his slider in favor of a cutter (.203 BAA). His curveball (.147 BAA) was an asset with strikeout ability (30). Batters had success with his four-seamer (.289 BAA) and his low-volume changeup (.364 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Pairing an elite fastball with two elite swing-and-miss breaking pitches should lead to much higher success on the mound. Williams doesn’t have an off-speed pitch of value, and the command of his heater isn’t there in and out of the strike zone. I liked his arm in 2024, but his added injury risk does paint a questionable picture this draft season. Williams isn’t far off, so pay attention to his arm this spring, as his arm could come fast.

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