Fantasy Baseball: Gerritt Cole Value In Flux Following an Elbow Injury

As the fantasy baseball season gets closer to live games in spring training, all eyes will be on Gerrit Cole's right arm after missing two months in 2025. He projects to be a value ace based on his ADP in early drafts in the high-stakes market.

Gerrit Cole's 2Ks in the 2nd. pic.twitter.com/ovGHisDwGA
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 31, 2024

SP – Gerrit Cole. NYY (ADP – 66.2)

2025 Gerrit Cole Pitching Stats Profile | Shawn Childs

Over his first four seasons with the Yankees, Cole went 51-23 with a 3.08 ERA, 1.011 WHIP, and 816 strikeouts over 644.0, giving New York ace stats. He led the American League in wins (16) in 2021 and in ERA in 2019 (2.50) and 2023 (2.63). Before last season, Cole finished with 200 strikeouts or more for five consecutive years (276, 326, 243, 257, and 222), excluding the shortened COVID-19 season in 2020.

A right elbow issue developed last March, leading to a free fall in drafts and 75 games on the injured list. Cole battled his way over his first seven starts (5.54 ERA, 1.457 WHIP, and 38 strikeouts) due to allowing nine home runs over 35.0 innings. He went 5-3 in August and September with a 2.25 ERA and 61 strikeouts over 60.0 innings. Only two balls left the park over this span. New York handed him the ball in five games in the postseason (1-0 with a 2.17 ERA, 1.276 WHIP, and 22 strikeouts over 29.0 innings).

His average fastball (96.0) was down about one mph from 2023 and almost two mph from his peak in 2021 and 2022. Cole incorporated his cutter (13.4%) more last season, leading to fewer four-seamers (45.4%) and sliders (16.2%). His fastball (.194 BAA) remains his best pitch, followed by his curveball (.216 BAA). The combination of his slider/cutter (.274 BAA) had less value.

Fantasy Outlook: Based on his much lower price point in 2025, the fantasy market has been cautious with their investment in Cole until his arm shows life in spring training. He opted out of his contract in early November, and the Yankees responded by locking him up for two more seasons. New York had no problem giving him $144 million over the next four years, but drafters won’t buy him as a foundation ace in the early draft season.

I expect his draft value to rise, similar to Jacob deGrom in March when the fantasy market has to place bigger bets on their ace donkey of the year. I sense a rat, but Cole showed enough over two-thirds of last season to believe he will be an edge again if he makes 30+ starts.

Fantasy Update (3/8/2025): After getting lit up for six runs, five hits, and two home runs over 2.2 innings in spring training, the New York Yankees released a report that he has a sore right elbow. He missed over two months in 2024 with a similar injury that led to him falling to the 18th to 20th round in NFBC 15-team fantasy drafts. A second elbow issue suggests a more significant injury, pointing to possible TJ surgery.

On the positive side, his velocity in his rough start vs. the Twins aligned with his career path, according to his pitch data on Brooks Baseball. Any pitcher with a previous injury that reemerges is immediately placed in my avoid column. Cole is off my draft board in 2025. I don't want to carry a hurt arm on my bench, and I won't be tempted by his falling ADP, even with a reasonable report about this elbow issue.

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