2025 Fantasy Baseball: Jesus Luzardo Profile, Preview, Predictions

The Jesus Luzardo's fantasy train rarely hits the winning fantasy station. After success in 2023, he missed another 20 starts last season. A new home this year invites hope of upside in the Philadelphia Phillies starting rotation.

Jesús Luzardo's 7th and 8th Ks thru 5. pic.twitter.com/jMlcp0Covd
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 28, 2024

SP – Jesus Luzardo, PHI (ADP – 240.6)

2025 Jesus Luzardo Pitching Stats Profile | Shawn Childs

Luzardo gave the fantasy market playable stats in 2023 despite moments of duress. Over five starts starting on May 21st, he allowed 18 runs, 29 baserunners, and four home runs over 26.1 innings, where his ERA (6.15) ranked much lower than his WHIP (1.101). Later in the year, Luzardo struggled to get batters out in four of seven matchups (24 runs, 54 baserunners, nine home runs, and 39 strikeouts over 35.1 innings). He gave up 19 of his 22 home runs over 528 at-bats to righties, with a .248 batting average. In addition, his arm was a significant liability on the road (4.48 ERA, 1.379 WHIP, and .276 BAA over 70.1 innings).

Four starts into 2024, Luzardo buried fantasy teams by allowing 17 runs, 31 baserunners, and five home runs over 20.0 innings with 21 strikeouts. He corrected his stats over his following 31.2 innings (1.99 ERA, 0.884 WHIP, and 29 strikeouts) while missing almost three weeks with an elbow issue. Any hope of better outcomes was crushed after a disastrous game on June 4th (nine runs, 11 baserunners, and one home run over 4.1 innings). His season ended two games later due to a back injury that didn’t require surgery. Luzardo suggested his back, shoulder, and forearm issues cleared up in the offseason.

His average fastball (95.2) was a career low. Despite his struggles in 2024, Luzardo had three favorable pitches – a four-seamer (.223 BAA), slider (.200 BAA), and changeup (.197 BAA). Batters banged around his low-volume sinker (.419 and .807 SLG).

Fantasy Outlook: In his time in the majors, Luzardo had underachieved his minor league resume (17-9 with a 2.94 ERA, 1.083 WHIP, and 278 strikeouts over 242.0 innings). His arm trended up in 2022 and 2023 (3.48 ERA, 1.151 WHIP, and 328 strikeouts over 279.0 innings). Trusting his health is a significant part of his higher ADP in 2025.

At age 27, Luzardo enters the prime of his career with a risk/reward feel. Over the past three years, batters hit .227 against him, a sign of better days when paired with command stats. He is the right kind of gamble with no injury news, as long as his spring reports are positive and his ADP doesn’t rise.

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