2025 Fantasy Baseball: Jose Berrios Profile, Preview, Predictions
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Over the past few seasons, Jose Berrios settled into a volume innings starting pitcher with some help in ERA and WHIP in most years. The fantasy market expected a higher ceiling from his right arm in his career, but home runs tend to lead to some bad innings.
José Berríos, Nasty 3 Pitch K (all Slurves). pic.twitter.com/Levud4txkp
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 15, 2024
SP – Jose Berrios, TOR (ADP – 248.3)
Over the past four years, Berrios posted an ERA of 3.65 or lower three times while not missing his turn in the rotation since 2020. His WHIP graded well in 2021 (1.063), 2023 (1.186), and 2024 (1.154). He’s pitched at least 172.0 innings since 2018, except for the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season.
At first glance, Berrios checked winning boxes in wins (16), ERA (3.60), and WHIP (1.154) last season, but home runs (31 – 1.5 per nine) were a problem. In addition, he lost his strikeout ability (7.2 per nine). Despite his regression, batters only hit .235 against him.
Berrios had a 2.93 ERA, 1.105 WHIP, and 64 strikeouts over his first 86.0 innings while allowing more than three runs in one game (eight runs, nine baserunners, and two home runs over 3.2 innings). His arm lost all value over his next nine outings (34 runs, 71 baserunners, and 12 home runs over 49.2 innings). Somehow, he found his rhythm over his final 56.2 innings (7-2 with a 2.38 ERA, 0.988 WHIP, and 50 strikeouts) while allowing six home runs.
His average fastball (94.2) aligned with his previous four years. Berrios shined with his slider (.186 BAA) and changeup (.171 BAA) despite serving up 20 home runs over 339 at-bats. He had below-par results with his four-seamer (.271 BAA) and sinker (.280 BAA). Berrios had a reverse split against righties and lefties with his fastballs (LH – four-seam ~ .302/sinker ~ .213 and RH – four-seam ~ .212/sinker ~ .329).
Fantasy Outlook: His decline in strikeouts should be a red flag and one I plan on focusing on in 2025. There is something to be said for a backend starter who takes the ball every fifth day. Berrios handled batters well for two-thirds of his starts (two runs or fewer in 21 outings) last season, so I can’t dismiss a rebound in his overall game.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
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