2025 Fantasy Baseball: Josh Lowe Profile, Preview, Predictions
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In one easy baseball season, Josh Lowe went from a breakout value hitter to a bust. The Tampa Bay Rays will play in a favorable home ballpark for lefties in 2025, giving him a higher ceiling in power.
Josh Lowe goes oppo for his 2nd home run of the night. 💥 pic.twitter.com/ET1WsO8mfV
— MLB (@MLB) August 4, 2024
OF – Josh Lowe, TB (ADP – 165.6)
Lowe made the Rays out of spring training in 2023, making him an excellent value in the fantasy market (FPGscore – 3.74 ~ 29th best hitter) based on his free ADP (412). His bat flashed over his first 106 at-bats (22 runs, nine home runs, 28 RBIs, and six steals). He only hit four home runs over his next 189 at-bats, with 20 runs, 27 RBIs, and 16 stolen bases while posting a low batting average (.243). Lowe played well over his final 171 at-bats (.328/29/7/28/10).
An oblique injury late in February last year led to no playing time in spring training while starting the regular season on the injured list. Lowe returned to the Rays starting lineup on May 6th. After his first 14 games (.240/5/2/3 over 50 at-bats), he suffered another oblique issue. Other than 25 steals over his final 303 at-bats, his bat didn’t fire over the final four months (.241/32/8/31 over 303 at-bats). Lowe only had 108 at-bats over the past two seasons against left-handed pitching (.231/12/2/13).
Lowe finished with a higher exit velocity (90.8 mph) and hard-hit rate (46.1) than in 2023 (89.1/39.1). His fly-ball rate (41.8) was a career-high, but he posted a lower HR/FB rate (10.3). He had a severe spike in his strikeout rate (31.8 – 24.8% in 2023) with an improved walk rate (8.3).
Fantasy Outlook: The change in ballparks in Tampa this year should be a positive for Lowe’s power, and he has an elite success rate stealing bases in the majors (93.8%) and over his last two seasons in the minors (96.2%), which invites a much better season in 2025. His contact batting average (.370) has been an area of strength in his time with the Rays (.380) and in the minors (.394), offsetting some of his batting average risk. With a 20/30 season on his major league resume, Lowe has the potential to be an excellent value this season. His first step to securing 550+ bats is solving left-handed pitching.
RANKINGS
Top 5 Catchers | Catchers 6-10 | Catchers 11-15
Top 5 First Basemen | First Basemen 6-10 | First Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Second Basemen | Second Basemen 6-10 | Second Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Shortstops | Shortstops 6-10 | Shortstops 11-15
Top 5 Third Basemen | Third Basemen 6-10 | Third Basemen 11-15
With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
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