2025 Fantasy Baseball: Josh Naylor Profile, Preview, Predictions
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In the offseason, the Arizona Diamondbacks flipped first base options. Josh Naylor has a rising bat, but lacks length to his at-bats resume (over 500 at-bats once).
Josh Naylor is feelin' home run No. 22 💪 pic.twitter.com/Prx9LLs3qv
— MLB (@MLB) July 9, 2024
C – Josh Naylor, ARI (ADP – 106.3)
Last year, I would have hit more round-trippers at first base if I invested in Naylor. He ended up being an excellent value at the position, thanks to setting career-highs in at-bats (563), runs (84), home runs (31), and RBIs (108). His only black mark in 2024 was a sharp decline in contact batting average (.299 – .362 in 2023). Naylor finished with his highest average hit rate (1.876) of his career, which now supports 30+ home runs with 550 at-bats if repeated.
Other than his batting average (.186) in May, he kicked in the offensive door over the first half of the season (45 runs, 20 home runs, and 61 RBIs over 289 at-bats) while also knocking in 24 runs in August. Naylor lost his offensive production in July (.237/13/3/13/2) and September (.258/11/3/10/1).
His strikeout rate (16.6) and walk rate (9.2) finished in favorable areas. He had a groundball swing path (46.8%). Despite setting a new top by a wide margin in his HR/FB rate (18.6), Naylor had weakness in his exit velocity (89.9 mph) and hard-hit rate (40.9). His launch angle (11.0) has been in a similar range over the past three years.
Fantasy Outlook: Naylor is a dilemma player for me in 2025. There isn’t enough “good” in his profile to believe in his newfound power, but he does control the strike zone while being clutch at the plate over the past three seasons based on his RBI rate (18.9, 21.9, and 19.2). Last year, he ranked 30th in FPGscore (2.86) for hitters in an offense that finished 14th in runs scored (708). The Diamondbacks led the majors in scoring (886 runs) in 2024. I’ll set his bar at 80/25/90 with a rebound in batting average and some help in speed.
RANKINGS
Top 5 Catchers | Catchers 6-10 | Catchers 11-15
Top 5 First Basemen | First Basemen 6-10 | First Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Second Basemen | Second Basemen 6-10 | Second Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Shortstops | Shortstops 6-10 | Shortstops 11-15
Top 5 Third Basemen | Third Basemen 6-10 | Third Basemen 11-15
With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
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