2025 Fantasy Baseball: Justin Steele Profile, Preview, Predictions
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Justin Steele is a late bloomer who battled an elbow issue last September. He throws strikes while relying on a cutter/slider combination of pitches to get batters out. His ADP falls at the back end of some intriguing arms in 2025, making him just another SP3 in fantasy leagues.
Justin Steele, 1st Career Complete Game! 🍾 pic.twitter.com/CyWlc4BomE
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 5, 2024
SP – Justin Steele, CHC (ADP – 118.6)
Steele outperformed his minor league resume over the past three seasons with the Cubs (25-17 with a 3.10 ERA, 1.199 WHIP, and 437 strikeouts over 427.0 innings).
Late last spring training, he suffered knee and hamstring injuries, leading to 36 days on the injured list. Steele struggled over three starts in mid-May (15 runs, 22 baserunners, and six home runs over 16.0 innings). Over his next 17 starts, his arm delivered ace stats (5-3 with a 2.45 ERA, 1.062 WHIP, and 108 strikeouts over 102.2 innings). He allowed more than three runs in two games over this span. Steele developed a left elbow injury in early September, leading to only 6.2 more innings (two runs, nine baserunners, and one home run).
His arm played well against left-handed batters (.188 with two home runs over 96 at-bats). Despite a rising fly-ball rate (37.5), his HR/FB rate (8.7) regressed.
Steele brings a below-par fastball (91.7), but his cutter is his top usage pitch (59.6% - .244 BAA). His path to success relies on the success of his slider (.156 BAA). He also features two show-me pitches (changeup – .222 BAA and curveball – .000 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: The Cubs trusted the health of Steele’s left arm enough to settle his arbitration case in early January for $6.55 million. His resume over the past three seasons paints a winning picture. I’ve avoided him so far in his career, so I’ll pass again this year due to his previous elbow issue. Steele should be an asset in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts if healthy for 30 starts.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
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