2025 Fantasy Baseball: Kevin Gausman Profile, Preview, Predictions
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The zip in Kevin Gausman's pitchers left the building last year, leading to a loss of 65 strikeouts in one easy season. As a result, his draft value this year is miles away from 2024.
SP – Kevin Gausman, TOR (ADP – 168.1)
Kevin Gausman's 9th, 10th and 11th Ks thru 6. 😳 pic.twitter.com/WYiWJfRpmG
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 7, 2023
When WHIP underperforms ERA, it tends to be a sign of an overachieving arm. Gausman turned in an elite season in 2021 (14-6 with a 2.81 ERA, 1.042 WHIP, and 227 strikeouts over 192.0 innings), followed by two competitive seasons in ERA (3.35 and 3.16) and strikeouts (205 and 237). Unfortunately, his WHIP (1.207) didn’t come along for the ride.
Last year, Gausman saw the bottom fall out of his strikeout rate (8.1 – 21.4% ~ 11.5/31.1 in 2023). Batters hit .238 against him, compared to .233 in 2023. He had an atrocious home (5.02 ERA and 1.337 WHIP) – road (2.51 ERA and 1.093 WHIP) split.
Gausman went 6-7 over his first 17 starts in 2024 with a 4.75 ERA, 1.340 WHIP, and 14 home runs over 91.0 innings with 91 strikeouts despite allowing one run or fewer in eight games. He went 8-4 over his final 90.0 innings with a 2.90 ERA, 1.110 WHIP, .207 BAA, and 71 strikeouts.
His average fastball (94.0) was a career low. Gausman threw fewer sliders (.268 BAA) and added a sinker (.289 BAA). His ticket to success comes from his split-finger fastball (.170 BAA with 81 strikeouts). His four-seamer’s decline (.275 BAA with 64 strikeouts) from 2023 (.246 with 110 strikeouts) was the reason for his lost strikeouts.
Fantasy Outlook: I questioned whether a drop of 75 strikeouts is worth more than allowing a much higher batting average against (.272 in 2022). In the second half of last season, Gausman showed he could still get batters out even with a sharp decline in strikeouts (7.1 per nine).
This fantasy season, I wanted to avoid pitchers with a decrease of more than one strikeout per nine innings, and he beat that number by a wide margin. At the same time, his price point is much lower, with no hint of a significant injury. Buying his expected innings isn’t a bad gamble, and if his strikeouts rebound in some way, Gausman will outperform his ADP.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
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