2025 Fantasy Baseball: Kodia Senga Profile, Preview, Predictions

Kodai Senga crushed the Mets and fantasy managers' dreams last season by making one start. He didn't have surgery, so his dark passenger remains lingering in the rearview mirror.

The 8 Finalists for Filthiest Pitch of the Year. 🏆

Matt Brash: Slider
Matt Brash: Nutmeg Knuckle Curve
Jhoan Duran: Splitter
Zac Gallen: Inadvertent Cut Change
Mitch Keller: Sweeper
George Kirby: Knuckleball
Kodai Senga: Ghost Fork
Abner Uribe: Sinker pic.twitter.com/8E4tmeSziq
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) November 23, 2023

SP – Kodai Senga, NYM (ADP – 147.3)

2025 Kodai Senga Pitching Stats Profile | Shawn Childs

Over 11 seasons in Japan, Senga went 104-51 with a 2.42 ERA, 1.095 WHIP, and 1,486 strikeouts over 1,340.2 innings. From 2018 to 2020, his walk rate (3.8, 3.7, and 4.1) graded as a liability. He threw more strikes (2.9 walks per nine) in 2021, leading to a 10-4 record with a 2.67 116 strikeouts over 111.1 innings. Senga delivered a 1.89 ERA and 159 strikeouts over 148.0 innings in 2022 while extending his winning season record (72-35) to eight years. He pitched over 150.0 innings only once since 2016 (180.1 – most of his career in 2019).

In his first year in New York, Senga had repeated success in ERA (2.98) while still having command issues (4.2 walks per nine). Over his first 13 starts, he allowed 19 runs, 38 baserunners, and seven home runs over 17.1 innings in four down games. Senga posted a 2.56 ERA, 1.137 WHIP, .211 BAA, and 115 strikeouts over his final 16 starts. He didn’t give up more than three runs over this span.

Last February, Senga developed a right shoulder injury that led to him making his 2024 debut on July 26th. He rewarded his supporters with an enticing game (two runs, three baserunners, and nine strikeouts over 5.1 innings), but the remainder of the regular season lost due to a calf injury that occurred in his only appearance. The Mets wheeled him out for three games in the postseason (seven runs, six hits, seven walks, and four strikeouts over five innings).

His 2023 average fastball (95.9 – 94.8 in his one game last year) had more velocity than expected. Senga earned his edge via his electric split-finger ghost ball (.113 with 113 strikeouts over 168 at-bats and 673 pitches thrown). His four-seamer (.234 BAA) and cutter (.238 BAA) were his top two pitches thrown by usage. He also mixed in a league-average sinker (.268 BAA – .188 vs. lefties) and show-me curveball (.143 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Heading into 2023, I suspected a shoulder issue may developed him based on his history in Japan. His loss of command in the playoffs suggests he wasn’t healthy. With no surgery to rectify his issue, it makes sense to fade Senga again this season. Sometimes, players are motivated to show winning outcomes in spring training, which may be the case with him this year.

Unfortunately, the ramp-up in intensity with his arm and extra effort on the mound brings back his previous injury. He may surprise this year, but my risk-averse approach will keep me far away from him this draft season, especially at his current price point.

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