2025 Fantasy Baseball: Lourdes Gurriel Profile, Preview, Predictions
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Lourdes Gurriel has been a tease over the last three seasons, as the fantasy market had thoughts of a higher ceiling.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. hits a go-ahead shot! pic.twitter.com/2xHiu9FGKB
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) September 21, 2024
OF – Lourdes Gurriel, ARZ (ADP – 217.3)
The Diamondbacks hit Gurriel almost exclusively third, fifth, or sixth in the batting order in 2023. He was an elite player in May (.352/18/8/18 over 91 at-bats), and his bat picked up over the last two months (.291 with 24 runs, nine home runs, 25 RBIs, and three steals over 189 at-bats). Gurriel only hit .224 in July and August (19/7/19/3). He was at his best vs. left-handed pitching (.301 with four home runs and 21 RBIs over 146 at-bats).
Last season, Gurriel set career highs in runs (72) and stolen bases (7) while missing 17 games in September with a calf injury. His April production (.254/19/5/22/2 over 122 at-bats) gave fantasy supporters hopes of a career season. Unfortunately, the Diamondbacks didn’t commit to him every day, leading to no other months with more than 95 at-bats. After a dull May (.213/6/1/9/1 over 94 at-bats), Gurriel had a winning batting average (.310/47/12/44/4 over 297 at-bats) for the remainder of the season, but he only had one other helpful fantasy month (June – .337 over 12 runs, five home runs, and 17 RBIs).
His strikeout rate (18.3) is trending higher while remaining favorable. Gurriel continues to have a below-par walk rate (5.2). He shined against left-handed pitching (.331/27/7/24/2 over 163 at-bats).
His exit velocity (88.4) was a career-low, with a sharp decline in his hard-hit rate (39.8 – 46.0 in 2023). Gurriel hit more fly-balls (41.0%), but his HR/FB rate (10.5) was the second-lowest of his career. With runners on base, his RBI rate (16.5%) beat the league average every season in his career.
Fantasy Outlook: The sum of Gurriel’s parts has yet to add up to an impact fantasy season. The Diamondbacks led the majors in runs (886) in 2024, but he only came to the plate with 352 runners on base, one off his career-high in 2023. His average hit rate (1.559) moved in the wrong direction, suggesting a low ceiling in power.
On the positive side, he posted a new top with his launch angle (15.7), a sign of a better swing path and a possible jump in home runs in 2025. Sneaky player if Arizona has in the lineup on more days, and more balls go over the fence. With 550 at-bats (he reached that total once in his career), his floor should be a .275/75/20/80/5 player.
RANKINGS
Top 5 Catchers | Catchers 6-10 | Catchers 11-15
Top 5 First Basemen | First Basemen 6-10 | First Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Second Basemen | Second Basemen 6-10 | Second Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Shortstops | Shortstops 6-10 | Shortstops 11-15
Top 5 Third Basemen | Third Basemen 6-10 | Third Basemen 11-15
With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
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