2025 Fantasy Baseball: Luis Arraez Profile, Preview, Predictions
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Luis Arraez has back-to-back 200-hit seasons, but he remains a two-category drag in home runs and RBIs. With the right team structure, his bat will help fantasy teams. Arraez must run or hit more balls over the fence to become more fantasy-relevant.
Luis Arraez's first Padres home run! pic.twitter.com/LRTEA2BU1n
— MLB (@MLB) May 22, 2024
2B – Luis Arraez, SD (ADP – 190.8)
Arraez led the National League in hits (200) in 2024 thanks to securing a career-best 637 at-bats with Miami and San Diego. His expected growth in home runs didn’t materialize due to a four-year low in his average hit rate (1.250), a stat that appeared to be trending higher over the previous two seasons. His elite contact batting average (.376) wasn’t repeatable last season (.323 – five-year low). Pitchers struck him out only 18 times (3.4%), with a similar outcome in his walk rate (3.1).
He never had more than one home run in a month while hitting over .300 in May (.389/16/1/11/3), August (.317/15/1/10/3), and September (.340/13/0/7/2). All nine of his stolen bases came with the Padres over 500 at-bats.
His exit velocity (86.3 mph) and hard-hit rate (23.1) were five-year lows. Arraez saw his HR/FB rate (2.1) slide after improving in 2022 (4.8%) and 2023 (6.5%). He did try to pull the ball more (32.7% - the highest of his career) while continuing to have a low fly-ball rate (32.1%).
Fantasy Outlook: With some team structures, Arraez can be a valuable addition to a fantasy team, especially if he can make a push back to about 10 home runs (unlikely). The increase in steals with San Diego gives him a chance to be neutral in this category in 2025. Last year, Arraez ranked 74th in FPGscore (-0.15) for hitters while gaining 3.19 fantasy points in batting average, or the equivalent of about 39.5 stolen bases based on last year’s stats.
As the 109th batter drafted this year, there is value already priced in his price point. The Padres will bat him leadoff, suggesting more runs. Let’s call him a three-category player on a path to offer a significant edge in batting average with 80+ runs, seven home runs, 60 RBIs, and 10+ steals.
RANKINGS
Top 5 Catchers | Catchers 6-10 | Catchers 11-15
Top 5 First Basemen | First Basemen 6-10 | First Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Second Basemen | Second Basemen 6-10 | Second Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Shortstops | Shortstops 6-10 | Shortstops 11-15
Top 5 Third Basemen | Third Basemen 6-10 | Third Basemen 11-15
With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
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