2025 Fantasy Baseball: Matt Chapman Profile, Preview, Predictions
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Matt Chapman grades well in exit velocity and hard-hit rate while improving his approach last season. Surprisingly, he added stolen bases (15) to his resume in 2024, but is that stat repeatable?
Matt Chapman makes this a one-run game with his 8th home run of the season. pic.twitter.com/LD5f30NEBO
— MLB (@MLB) May 23, 2024
3B – Matt Chapman, SF (ADP – 137.0)
After stealing 11 bases over 23 attempts over his first seven years in the majors, Chapman turned into a speed demon (15-for-17 in stolen bases) in 2024. His added value in the steals category led to him finishing 32nd in FPGscore (2.76) for hitters.
His strikeout rate (24.4) was his best since 2019 (21.9 – 29.9% over his previous four years). He had a favorable walk rate (9.9) for his career. Chapman struggled with runners on bases over the past three seasons (RBI rate – 12.2, 9.6, and 13.6). His average hit rate (1.873) supports 30+ home runs with 550 at-bats, helped by his fly-ball rate (45.3 – 46.4 in his career). On the downside, Chapman has always had a high infield fly-ball rate (15.9), creating many easy outs and lowering his potential in batting average. His HR/FB rate (14.2) hasn’t approached his success in 2019 (19.0%) and 2020 (22.2%) with the A’s. Chapman ranked 12th in exit velocity (93.2 – mph) and 29th in hard-hit rate (48.3).
Last year, he had quiet home run and RBI production over the first four months (4/14, 4/13, 3/12, and 4/9) while grading better in runs (63). Chapman upped his power out over his final 173 at-bats (.260/25/12/30/3) while missing four games in September (paternity leave).
Fantasy Outlook: The Giants gave him 379 of his 573 at-bats (66.1%) hitting third and fourth in the batting order. Buying Chapman’s added value in stolen bases could be a trap. Over the past five seasons, he hit .232 while averaging 83 runs, 26 home runs, and 73 RBIs if given 550 at-bats. Pretty much low average power, with a glass ceiling for someone expecting a much better season in 2025.
RANKINGS
Top 5 Catchers | Catchers 6-10 | Catchers 11-15
Top 5 First Basemen | First Basemen 6-10 | First Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Second Basemen | Second Basemen 6-10 | Second Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Shortstops | Shortstops 6-10 | Shortstops 11-15
Top 5 Third Basemen | Third Basemen 6-10 | Third Basemen 11-15
With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
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