2025 Fantasy Baseball: Nico Hoerner Profile, Preview, Predictions
In this story:
Nico Hoerner tends to offer an edge in batting average with more stolen bases than originally expected from his minor league stats. Double-digit home runs remain challenging based on his low average hit rate.
NICO HOERNER CRUSHES HIS FIRST HOME RUN OF THE YEAR! 💣 pic.twitter.com/P7BsgMJakz
— Cubs Zone (@CubsZone) May 4, 2024
2B – Nico Hoerner, CHC (ADP – 203.1)
After posting his best season in 2023, highlighted by a jump to 43 stolen bases, Hoerner had a regression in all his counting stats for fantasy leagues last year. He repeated his approach while posting a career-low in his strikeout rate (10.3). His ceiling in batting average tends to be capped by his contact batting average (.308 – .326 in 2023 and .318 in 2022). After showing clutching ability with runners on base (RBI rate of 17% from 2021 to 2023), Hoerner struggled in this area last season (RBI rate – 12.7).
His bat succeeded more against left-handed pitching (.328/25/2/12/7 over 128 at-bats) in 2024. He had fewer than 10 RBIs every month except July (no home runs and 13 RBIs). Hoerner offered his best stats over the final two months (.316 with 34 runs, three home runs, 14 RBIs, and 14 stolen bases).
The hope of more home runs was dashed by his fading HR/FB rate (4.3), exit velocity (85.7 mph), and hard-hit rate (27.6). Hoerner continues to have a low fly-ball rate (31.6) but hit more line drives (24.1%) last season. His launch angle (10.4) has been in a tight range over the past three years.
Fantasy Outlook: The biggest question for his value in 2025 is where the Cubs will hit Hoerner in the batting order. If he doesn’t secure a leadoff job, his at-bat total will have further erosion (46.9% of his playing time came at the top of Chicago’s order last season ~ 99.7% in 2023, hitting first or second).
In a way, his profile has much in common with Luis Arraez, with one player having an edge in batting average and the other in stolen bases. I’m seeing a .280/75/10/65/35 season coming, making him a positive outcome player for a fantasy team.
RANKINGS
Top 5 Catchers | Catchers 6-10 | Catchers 11-15
Top 5 First Basemen | First Basemen 6-10 | First Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Second Basemen | Second Basemen 6-10 | Second Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Shortstops | Shortstops 6-10 | Shortstops 11-15
Top 5 Third Basemen | Third Basemen 6-10 | Third Basemen 11-15
With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
Follow Shawn__Childs