2025 Fantasy Baseball: Nolan Arenado Profile, Preview, Predictions
The sky in the fantasy market has fallen on the value of Nolan Arenado in 2025. He has a long resume of success in power with a low strikeout rate. Based on his lower comparison in the player pool, one man's garbage can be another man's fantasy gold.
3B – Nolan Arenado, STL (ADP – 227.7)
After three steady but helpful seasons with the Cardinals, Arenado lost his power stroke last season, leading to a sharp decline in his average hit rate (1.452 – 1.842 over his first 11 years). His exit velocity (86.3 mph) was well below his career average (89.0) while ranking 184th in hard-hit rate (31.6) for batters with at least 400 plate appearances. He barreled only 16 balls, compared to 108 combined over the previous three seasons. Arenado lost his fly-ball swing path (39.1%) over the past two years, with a low-ranking HR/FB rate (8.3 – 14.4 in his career).
He battled a back injury in February, followed by four other minor issues (hand, elbow, forearm, and shoulder). His only month of value came in August (.303/15/4/18/1 over 109 at-bats), but Arenado did play better at home (.307 over 33 runs, eight home runs, and 40 RBIs over 277 at-bats).
His strikeout rate (14.5) almost matched his career average while seeing more weakness in his walk rate (6.9) over the past two seasons. Arenado had 50 fewer RBI chances (376) than his previous three seasons (435, 426, and 429). His lost run and RBI production resulted from him not driving himself in via a home run.
Fantasy Outlook: The quandary a drafter faces in 2025 is writing off Arenado’s bust season and trusting his return to his previous three years with St. Louis; the other option is to run and hide and avoid him at all costs. A 70/25/80 season would price Arenado as a sixth offensive piece to a fantasy team compared to the 134th-ranked hitter in the early draft season in the NFBC.
The Cardinals will pay him $21 million this year, ensuring he’ll have every opportunity to regain his lost power stroke. A keen eye in March should help sway his draft value. His good outweighs his bad in his career, so take the at-bats, and his power should come along for the ride.
RANKINGS
Top 5 Catchers | Catchers 6-10 | Catchers 11-15
Top 5 First Basemen | First Basemen 6-10 | First Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Second Basemen | Second Basemen 6-10 | Second Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Shortstops | Shortstops 6-10 | Shortstops 11-15
Top 5 Third Basemen | Third Basemen 6-10 | Third Basemen 11-15
With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.