2025 Fantasy Baseball: Robbie Ray Profile, Preview, Predictions

It's been three seasons since Robbie Ray has been fantasy relevant. He brings strikeout upside while pitching in a favorable home ball park. Deal or not deal is the question the fantasy market will debate this spring.

Robbie Ray, K'ing the Side in the 2nd. pic.twitter.com/Cu5omlr5sB
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 25, 2024

SP – Robbie Ray, SF (ADP – 147.9)

2025 Robbie Ray Pitching Stats Profile | Shawn Childs

A trip to the American League and a home schedule in multiple smaller ballparks didn’t hurt Ray’s success in 2021. He led the AL in ERA (2.84), WHIP (1.045), innings pitched (193.1), and strikeouts (248).

In 2022, Ray had a regression in his stats across the board. His arm came out flat over his first 12 starts (4.97 ERA and 77 strikeouts over 70.2 innings) due to struggles with home runs (14). He regained his 2021 form over his next 15 starts (2.27 ERA, .198 BAA, and 106 strikeouts over 91 innings) despite struggles in two games (10 runs, 19 baserunners, and three home runs over 5.2 innings). Unfortunately, Ray tripped up again over his final five starts (16 runs, 42 baserunners, and eight home runs over 27.1 innings with 29 strikeouts).

In his first start in 2023, he allowed three runs and nine baserunners over 3.1 innings with three strikeouts before blowing out his left elbow. By the end of April, Ray had TJ surgery, leading to no MLB game action for 16 months. Home runs (6) and walks (15) were a problem last year over his six starts (4.70 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, and 43 strikeouts over 30.2 innings). A hamstring issue in late August ended his season.

His average fastball (94.3) had a rebound in velocity. Ray still has a dominating slider (.148 BAA) and four-seamer (.164 BAA) while relying on his curveball as his third pitch (.250 BAA). He issued 15 of his 19 free passes via his fastball.

Fantasy Outlook: Ray will enter 2025 with only 34.0 innings pitched over the previous two seasons. Despite his struggles with command last season, his best two pitches were still challenging to hit, highlighted by his career-low hard-hit rate (35.4) and weaker exit velocity (86.8 mph). On the downside, he did pitch up in the strikeout zone (fly-ball rate – 53.1 – 39.5 in his career), inviting more home runs.

Ray struggled with left-handed batters (7-for-21 with two home runs) last year. In his breakout season in 2021, his stuff showed more upside in spring training. I would look for that pattern again this year. I’m keeping an open mind about his potential in 2025.

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