2025 Fantasy Baseball: Sandy Alcantara Profile, Preview, Predictions

Shawn Childs | Feb 26, 2025

Miami Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

In 2022, Sandy Alcantara helped me win over $25,000 in the NFBC high-stakes drafts in Las Vegas. A year later. he crushed a couple of my pitching staffs. His arm had plenty of gas ealry in spring training, suggesting a bounceback season.

Sandy Alcantara, 99mph ⛽️

Welcome back! pic.twitter.com/xreLdjmU5c

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 23, 2025

2025 Sandy Alcantara Pitching Stats Profile / Shawn Childs

Over 40 starts in 2020 and 2021, Alcantara went 12-17 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.094 WHIP, and 240 strikeouts over 247.2 innings. Despite throwing more strikes and being more challenging to hit (.212 BAA), his strikeout rate (8.1) regressed in 2022. Alcantara led the National League in innings pitched (228.2 – 7.1 innings per start), complete games (6), and batters faced (886).

When reviewing his profile after his significant setback in value in 2023, a fantasy drafter should be looking for hints of what went wrong. I already mentioned that Alcantara had a step back in strikeouts, but his whiff percentage (23.4) was close to 2022 (24.0). Conversely, his K/9 (8.1) showed more regression than his previous season (8.8). These two numbers tell different stories, which makes me wonder which data point is more relevant. From 2021 through 2023, he has an excellent strike percentage (67.9, 68.7, and 68.9).

Here’s a look at his top four pitches over his last three seasons when on the mound:

• 2021 – Four-seamer (98.2 – .229 BAA), Changeup (91.9 – .229 BAA), sinker (97.7 – .219 BAA), and slider (90.5 – .189)

• 2022 – Four-seamer (98.0 – .240 BAA), Changeup (91.7 – .143 BAA), sinker (97.8 – .261 BAA), and slider (89.9 – .213)

• 2023 – Four-seamer (98.1 – .242 BAA), Changeup (91.1 – .279 BAA), sinker (97.7 – .243 BAA), and slider (90.0 – .227)

In 2023, Alcantara faded further in his strikeout rate (7.4 per nine and 19.8%) while allowing more home runs (1.1 per nine – 0.6 in 2022). He also walked a few more batters (2.3 per nine). His ground ball rate (52.9) remained high, with only a slight rise in his fly-ball rate (30.8).

Alcantara buried fantasy teams over his first 17 starts (3-7 with a 4.93 ER, 1.254 WHIP, and 89 strikeouts over 107.2 innings). His command was an issue in May (16 walks over 39.0 innings). He started to correct his damage over his next eight games (2.75 ERA, 1.042 WHIP, and 52 strikeouts over 55.2 innings), but four contests later (13 runs, 38 baserunners, and five home runs over 26.1 innings), he blew out his right elbow (TJ surgery on October 6th in 2023).

Fantasy Outlook: Unfortunately, the only conclusion for his demise and injury was an increased workload from 2020 to 2022 (42.0, 205.2, and 228.2 innings). Alcantara will have 18 months of recovery when lights go on for the regular season in early April. The Marlins have a team option for him for 2027, so there is a chance he gets traded midseason.

When at his best, Alcantara threw hard with command while working off four competitive pitches. If his walk rate is intact this spring with velocity, I expect him to pitch at least 180.0 innings this year with success. An SP4 with length to his starts should be an advantage. Not quite a luck in early February, but his profile and value should rise in spring training.

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