2025 Fantasy Baseball: Seth Lugo Profile, Preview, Predictions

Kansas City made a big investment in Seth Lugo last season at age 34. He rewarded their trust with a Royal Flush perfomance for the year, giving him career-highs in wins (16) and strikeouts (181).

Seth Lugo's 6th, 7th and 8th Ks. pic.twitter.com/UPxmAqjhEh
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 19, 2024

SP – Seth Lugo, KC (ADP – 182.0)

2025 Seth Lugo Pitching Stats Profile | Shawn Childs

The gamble by the San Diego Padres to move Lugo into the starting rotation in 2023 paid off despite missing some time with a calf issue. He set a career-high in innings pitched (146.1 – 81.1 more than in 2022). Lugo allowed two runs or fewer in 18 of his 26 starts while throwing at least six innings in 17 games. Home runs (13 over 82.2 innings) become more of a problem after the All-Star break.

Kansas City signed him in 2024 for $30 million for two seasons with a player option for 2026. He rewarded their confidence and investment with an excellent season last year. Lugo set career highs in wins (16), innings pitched (206.2), and strikeouts (181) while leading the American League in batters faced (836). His ERA (3.00) and WHIP (1.089) were his lowest levels over the past five seasons. Before 2023, he never pitched more than 102.0 innings in any year in the majors.

Lugo went 12-7 over his first 19 starts, leading to a 2.21 ERA, 1.041 WHIP, and 110 strikeouts over 122.0 innings. Over this span, he allowed more than two runs in three games (4, 4, and 5). His arm lost momentum over his next 50.0 innings (35 runs, 66 baserunners, and four home runs with 36 strikeouts). Lugo returned to ace status over his final six games (2.08 ERA, 0.923 WHIP, and 35 strikeouts over 34.2 innings).

His average fastball (92.7) was his lowest since 2017. Lugo incorporated a slider over the past two seasons, with a slight uptick in his changeup and adding a show-me split-finger fastball. Batters hit under .240 off six of his pitches. His only losing offering was his sinker (.280 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Lugo looks like a crafty arm based on the depth of his arsenal last year. On the downside, his strikeout rate (7.9) regressed for the five consecutive years. He has a career 3.38 ERA over 847.2 innings in the majors, proving Lugo has the stuff to get batters. My gut says his increased workload will catch up to him in 2025. Buying last year’s stats and players off career seasons tends to be a losing investment in fantasy baseball, so temper your expectations.

Other Starting Pitching Options