2025 Fantasy Baseball: Sonny Gray Profile, Preview, Predictions

When on his game, Sonny Gray has the tools to be a winning SP2 or SP3, depending on league size. Unfortunately, he tends to miss some time in most recent years while battling a right elbow issue in 2024.

Sonny Gray, 84mph Sweeper and 93mph Two Seamer, Individual Pitches + Overlay. pic.twitter.com/Gixg1dSdlc
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 12, 2024

SP – Sonny Gray, STL (ADP – 105.1)

The move to St. Louis in 2024 treated Gray well, leading to his lowest walk rate (2.1) and K:BB ratio (5.2) of his career. Despite his better command and winning strikeout rate (11.0 – 30.3%), he had a regression of more than a run allowed per nine innings (2.79 in 2023 and 3.84 in 2024). Home runs (1.1 per nine) crept into his equation while seeing minimal change in his batting average against over the past four seasons (.225, .224. .226. and .228).

Gray ended last season with a right forearm issue, costing him the final 10 games of the year. He also was on the sidelines for 11 matchups to open 2024 due to a hamstring issue. His arm backed up over two starts in mid-May (11 runs, 18 baserunners, and four home runs over 11.0 innings with 15 strikeouts). Gray lost momentum in his stats from July 5th to August 24th (5.83 ERA, 1.352 WHIP, and 66 13 home runs over 54.0 innings with 66 strikeouts) when he gave up five runs or more in six of his nine starts. His arm stabilized over his final four appearances (2-0 with a 2.55 ERA, 0.851 WHIP, and 28 strikeouts over 24.2 innings).

Much of his failure came on the road (5.20 ERA, 1.211 WHIP, and 92 strikeouts over 93.2 innings). Left-handed batters (.248 BAA with 11 home runs over 290 at-bats) had the most success against Gray. The exit velocity (89.6) against him has risen over the past three seasons.

His slider (.171 BAA) was his top usage pitch (30.7%) last season while throwing fewer curveballs (.213 BAA). He’s mixed a cutter (.182 vs. righties, but it was a liability against LH batters – .429) over the past two years, along with throwing more losing changeups (.370 BAA). Gray has a below league-average fastball (92.6). His sinker (.199 BAA) grades much better than his four-seamer (.328 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Gray gains his strikeout edge with his slider (119 in 2024), and his sinker has swing-and-miss value (52 strikeouts). He threw his other four pitches 1,278 times last season, but they accounted for only 31 strikeouts. Gray is at his best when ahead in the count, and his slider is on point. Three of his pitches had downside risks in 2024.

Over the past four seasons, he missed 18 starts. His forearm issue last year could indicate an underlying elbow issue created by his rising slider usage. Gray is a tricky arm to price this year, as his surface stats shine in many areas, but there are hints of downside lurking in the background.

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