2025 Fantasy Baseball: Trevor Story Profile, Preview, Predictions
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Over the past three seasons, Trevor Story has had 609 at-bats with 83 runs, 21 home runs, and 29 stolen bases. The fantasy wants that output from him in one year. Based on his previous success, he projects to be a value, but can he stay healthy for 150 games?
Trevor Story smoked his second home run in the last five days.
— Jamie Gatlin (@JamieGatlin17) September 19, 2024
pic.twitter.com/Ww3QGWIwSZ
SS – Trevor Story, BOS (ADP – 237.0)
In his three seasons with Boston, Story missed 323 games, with four stints (wrist, heel, shoulder, and elbow) on the injured list, two of which required surgery. He struggled over his first 72 at-bats (.208/8/0/6) in 2022, followed by sensational production (.252 with 21 runs, nine home runs, 34 RBIs, and six stolen bases over 107 at-bats). Over his next 32 games, Story lost his approach (43 strikeouts and five walks), leading to a step back in results (.203/20/6/18/3 over 128 at-bats). He hit .340 over his final 50 at-bats, with one home run and eight RBIs.
Story had elbow surgery in January of 2023, putting him out of major league action until August 8th. Over his 158 at-bats, he was lost at the plate (.203 with 12 runs, three home runs, 14 RBIs, and 10 steals). His strikeout rate (31.4) was well below 2020 (24.3%) and 2021 (23.4%) with the Rockies. Story had the lowest walk rate (5.4) of his career.
Eight games into last season (7-for-31 with one run, four RBIs, and one steal), Boston lost Story for 134 games with shoulder surgery. He hit .270 over his final 63 at-bats with seven runs, two home runs, and five stolen bases.
His launch angle (18.6) has been home run-favoring in seven of his nine years in the majors. Story comes off a career-low barrel rate (6.6). He has never had a flyball rate lower than 42.2%. His HR/FB rate from 2020 and 2022 (13.4, 13.9, and 14.8) failed to match his 2018 (19.9) and 2019 (19.9) seasons with the Rockies (only 7.0% and 7.7% over the past two years).
Fantasy Outlook: Story comes into 2025 with an even more beaten-down profile, with more questions than answers in the fantasy market. His ADP (237) is well below his peak form from 2018 to 2020, when he ranked in the top 10 each year for hitters by FPGscore (10.00, 7.75, and 3.75 – strike season). The Red Sox have him under contract for two more seasons, and they would love some return on their investment. Story has the tools to outperform his ADP by a wide margin, with minimal replacement cost if he fails. With positive spring reports, he could be a missing piece to a winning team in deep formats.
RANKINGS
Top 5 Catchers | Catchers 6-10 | Catchers 11-15
Top 5 First Basemen | First Basemen 6-10 | First Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Second Basemen | Second Basemen 6-10 | Second Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Shortstops | Shortstops 6-10 | Shortstops 11-15
Top 5 Third Basemen | Third Basemen 6-10 | Third Basemen 11-15
With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
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