2025 Fantasy Baseball: Triston Casas Profile, Preview, Predictions
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Strikeouts continue to curtail the ceiling of Triston Casas. He brings a powerful left-handed bat that isn't strong enough to earn everyday at-bats against lefties.
3 HOME RUN GAME FOR TRISTON CASAS!
— Boston Strong (@BostonStrong_34) September 22, 2024
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1B – Triston Casas, BOS (ADP – 117.3)
Over his first 1,019 at-bats in the minors, Casas hit .269 with 177 runs, 46 home runs, 181 RBIs, and 10 steals. His walk rate (13.6) graded well while keeping his strikeout rate (21.6) near the league average. In 2022, he hit .248 over his first 129 at-bats at AAA with 22 runs, six home runs, and 22 RBI. Unfortunately, an ankle injury pushed him to the injured list for eight weeks. Casas played another 36 games at AAA (.296/23/5/16 over 135 at-bats) before the Red Sox called him up in September.
In his time in the minors (1.873, 1.733, and 1.782) and with the Red Sox (2.067, 1.858, and 1.922), Casas had a high floor in his average hit rate, pointing to 30+ home runs early in his major league career. He struggled over his last two seasons in the minors against left-handed pitching (.217 over 161 at-bats with one home run and 13 RBI), an issue repeated with Boston in 2023 (.215/14/4/12 over 79 at-bats with 31 strikeouts) and 2024 (.250/6/3/4 over 56 at-bats with 21 strikeouts).
After a slow start over the first half of 2023 (.225/34/9/27 over 249 at-bats), Casas moved to stud status over his final 180 at-bats (.317/32/15/38), highlighted by an improved approach (walk rate – 14.2 and strikeout rate – 23.7). His season ended in mid-September due to a right shoulder injury.
Last season, he missed 99 games after tearing cartilage in his ribs in late April. His stats (.241/28/13/32) projected over 550 at-bats came to 73 runs, 34 home runs, and 83 RBIs.
Casas has a slight pullback in his exit velocity (90.2 mph) and hard-hit rate (45.2), with a bump in his groundball rate (42.2 – 40.4 in 2024). His HR/FB rate (25.0) ranked among the best power hitters. His rust at the plate led to a spike in his strikeout rate (31.7 – 25.1 in 2023) while maintaining a high walk rate (12.4).
Fantasy Outlook: For a fantasy drafter looking for a high ceiling in power, Casas should shine brightly in 2025. He has the tools to be a much better overall hitter if he can get his strikeouts under control and improve against left-handed pitching. His next step is producing better with runners on base (RBI rate – 14.6 in 2024 and 13.2 in his career). I can’t dismiss his injury history. He is trending toward a 90/30/90 season if Boston does give him the majority of his at-bats in the middle of the lineup. Torn as his sexiness to some drafter will push up his ADP in the high-stakes market.
RANKINGS
Top 5 Catchers | Catchers 6-10 | Catchers 11-15
Top 5 First Basemen | First Basemen 6-10 | First Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Second Basemen | Second Basemen 6-10 | Second Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Shortstops | Shortstops 6-10 | Shortstops 11-15
Top 5 Third Basemen | Third Basemen 6-10 | Third Basemen 11-15
With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
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